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Elecciones 2016

Trump ahead of Marco Rubio by seven points in Florida among republican voters

Among Hispanic Republican registered voters in the Sunny State Rubio has more than double the intended votes as his two adversaries: 49% of the intended vote, compared to 21% for Cruz and 20% for Trump.
10 Mar 2016 – 8:15 AM EST

Less than a week before the Florida primary elections, Donald Trump is ahead of his two Republican rivals, based on the intended vote by his party’s registered voters in the state. Trump tops Marco Rubio by seven percentage points and has double the amount of intended votes as Ted Cruz (38% vs. 19%), according to the results of a new survey by Bendixen & Amandi International and The Tarrance Group conducted on behalf of Univision Noticias and The Washington Post.

Among Hispanic Republican registered voters in the Sunny State, the preferences lean in favor of Marco Rubio—who is not only the son of Cuban parents, but has also “Home Field Advantage” on the upcoming primaries on March 15 th. Rubio has more than double the intended votes as his two adversaries: 49% of the intended vote, compared to 21% for Cruz and 20% for Trump.


Infografia

Donald Trump is the leading choice in the preferences of registered Republican voters in Florida, with a seven percentage points lead over Marco Rubio and 19 over Ted Cruz

Likely republican voters

Donald Trump

38%

Marco Rubio

31%

Ted Cruz

19%

Rubio wins by far among Hispanics

Republican hispanics

Donald Trump

20%

Marco Rubio

49%

Ted Cruz

21%

Donald Trump is the leading choice in the preferences of registered Republican voters in Florida, with a seven percentage points lead over Marco Rubio and 19 over Ted Cruz

Likely republican voters

38%

31%

19%

Donald Trump

Marco Rubio

Ted Cruz

Rubio wins by far among Hispanics

Republican hispanics

49%

20%

21%

Donald Trump

Marco Rubio

Ted Cruz

In general terms, Rubio is the candidate with the greatest favorability ratings among his party’s voters registered in Florida. Of these, 62% have a very favorable or somewhat favorable opinion of the Florida senator, compared to 57% for his two opponents.


Infografia

Rubio is the candidate most favored among registered Republican Party voters in Florida. He has a 62% approval rating compared to 57% for his two main rivals

Likely Republican voters

Very/Somewhat favorable opinion

Very/Somewhat unfavorable opinion

Don’t know/Did not respond

Donald Trump

57%

39%

4%

Marco Rubio

62%

31%

7%

Ted Cruz

57%

35%

8%

Among Hispanics, 61% frown upon Trump

Republican Hispanics

Very/Somewhat favorable opinion

Very/Somewhat unfavorable opinion

Don’t know/Did not respond

Donald Trump

36%

61%

3%

Marco Rubio

76%

18%

6%

Ted Cruz

68%

22%

10%

Very/Somewhat favorable opinion

Rubio is the candidate most favored among registered Republican Party voters in Florida.

Very/Somewhat unfavorable opinion

Don’t know/Did not respond

He has a 62% approval rating compared to 57% for his two main rivals

Among Hispanics, 61% frown upon Trump

Likely Republican voters

Republican Hispanics

Donald Trump

Donald Trump

57%

39%

4%

36%

61%

3%

Marco Rubio

Marco Rubio

62%

31%

7%

76%

18%

6%

Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz

57%

35%

8%

68%

22%

10%

Among Hispanics polled, the favorable opinion toward Rubio increases to 76%, while the opinion toward Trump drops down to 36%. Furthermore, the unfavorable opinion toward the tycoon, who among all persons surveyed is as low as 31%, shoots up to 61% among Republican voters of Latino origin registered in the state.

Rubio also is ahead of his opponents with respect to the perception the voters have of his honesty and trustworthiness. When asked which of the three candidates they considered to be the most honest and trustworthy, 34% of those polled leaned toward Rubio, 30% toward Trump and 21% toward Ted Cruz.


Infografia

Registered Republican voters in Florida believe that Marco Rubio is the most trustworthy candidate, but most consider Donald Trump has a far greater chance of being elected president

Candidate more honest and trustworthy

34%

30%

21%

Trump

Rubio

Cruz

Candidate more likely

to be elected president

60%

17%

15%

Trump

Rubio

Cruz

Registered Republican voters in Florida believe that Marco Rubio is the most trustworthy candidate, but most consider Donald Trump has a far greater chance of being elected president

Candidate more honest

and trustworthy

Candidate more likely

to be elected president

60%

34%

30%

21%

17%

15%

Trump

Rubio

Rubio

Trump

Rubio

Rubio

Furthermore, Republican voters registered in Florida believe that Rubio has a better personality and temperament for carrying out his duties as President of the United States, but when voters were asked who they thought had the best chances of being elected president in the November elections they overwhelmingly leaned toward Trump (60% compared to 17% toward Rubio and 15% toward Cruz).

The majority view of respondents (59%) expresses the idea that Rubio does not have many opportunities to become the nominee, in the sense that the Floridian candidate should resign his candidacy if not win the Florida primaries on March 15.

The fact that Trump is seen as an outsider, which many analysts see as one of his greatest strengths in this electoral process, was reflected in the question asking which of the candidates would be able to bring about an important change in Washington. Among Republican voters, 55% leaned toward Trump, 21% toward Rubio and 15% toward Cruz.

And even though they are distrustful of his character and temperament, the persons polled believe Trump is best able to manage the problems they consider to be most important in this election: the economy, immigration, terrorist threats and healthcare.


Infografia

Terrorism is one of the biggest concerns of registered Republican voters in Florida, surpassed only by employment and the economy, and far exceeding immigration, which ranks fifth. The pattern is very similar among registered Hispanic Republicans in Florida

Most influential issues in voting

Economy and jobs

43%

Terrorism

27%

Foreign policy

8%

Health

7%

Immigration

6%

Terrorism is one of the biggest concerns of registered Republican voters in Florida, surpassed only by employment and the economy, and far exceeding immigration, which ranks fifth. The pattern is very similar among registered Hispanic Republicans in Florida

Most influential issues in voting

43%

27%

8%

7%

6%

Economy

and jobs

Terrorism

Foreign

policy

Health

Immigration

Curiously, Republican voters in the state appear to have a clearer vision of national politics than they do of local politics. Eight out of every ten persons polled do not yet know who they are going to vote for in their party’s primaries for electing the candidate that will represent them in the U.S. Senate seat that Marco Rubio will be vacating.


Infografia

Eight out of 10 registered Republican voters in Florida do not know yet who they are going to vote for in the primary to replace Marco Rubio in the U.S. Senate. The current candidates arouse little enthusiasm

0%

Carlos Beruff

Ron DeSantis

David Jolly

Carlos López-Cantera

Todd Wilcox

Don’t know

Did not respond

6%

5%

6%

2%

74%

7%

No candidate has more than 6% support of registered Republicans

Eight out of 10 registered Republican voters in Florida do not know yet who they are going to vote for in the primary to replace Marco Rubio in the U.S. Senate. The current candidates arouse little enthusiasm

No candidate has more than 6% support of registered Republicans

74%

7%

6%

6%

5%

2%

0%

Carlos

Beruff

Ron

DeSantis

David

Jolly

Carlos

López-

Cantera

Todd

Wilcox

Don’t

know

Did not

respond

None of the current candidates vying for the Republican nomination seems to stir up much enthusiasm among their party’s voters, since all of them have less than 6% of the intended vote. Among Hispanics, Carlos López Cantera has 27% of the preferences, but that is not enough to place him ahead of his rivals in the general election.

On survey topics aside from the election, Republican voters registered in Florida differed radically from the opinion given by Democratic voters and which was reported in the survey, according to party affiliation, conducted by Bendixen & Amandi International and The Tarrance Group and published yesterday by Univision Noticias and The Washington Post.

While Democrats in the state overwhelmingly support (78%) the idea that the Senate submit to a vote of consent the name of the person nominated by Barack Obama to replace Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, eight out of ten Republican voters are opposed to the idea and believe the vote should be postponed until after the election of the new president.

While Democrats in the state are opposed by 80% to Donald Trump’s proposal to restrict entry into the country by Muslims who are not U.S. citizens, 57% of Republican voters registered in the Florida would support the idea.


Infografia

Two out of three registered Republican voters in Florida support candidate Donald Trump’s call for a ban on non-U.S. Muslims entering the United States

Should Muslims be banned

from the United States?

Very in favor

Somewhat in favor

39%

18%

Don’t know/

No response

Somewhat

against

8%

Very

against

18%

17%

Two out of three registered Republican voters in Florida support candidate Donald Trump’s call for a ban on non-U.S. Muslims entering the United States

Should Muslims be banned from the United States?

Very in favor

Somewhat in favor

39%

18%

Don’t know/No response

8%

Somewhat against

Very

against

18%

17%

And while 87% of the Democrats approve the visit that President Barack Obama will be making to Cuba next March 21 st, 59% of the Republicans are of the opinion that it should not take place.

Surprisingly, more Republicans (51%) than Democrats (46%) support the idea of ending the “dry feet, wet feet” policy that allows Cubans who flee the Island to stay in the United States if they set foot on U.S. soil.


Infografia

A slight majority of registered Republican voters in Florida supports the idea of ending the “wet-foot, dry-foot” policy that allows Cubans fleeing the island to stay in America if they manage to set foot on U.S. soil

For or against ending “wet-foot, dry-foot” policy

Very in favor

Very against

28%

25%

Don’t know/

No response

Somewhat

in favor

9%

Somewhat

against

23%

15%

A slight majority of registered Republican voters in Florida supports the idea of ending the “wet-foot, dry-foot” policy that allows Cubans fleeing the island to stay in America if they manage to set foot on U.S. soil

For or against ending “wet-foot, dry-foot” policy

Very in favor

Very against

28%

25%

Don’t know/No response

9%

Somewhat in favor

23%

Somewhat

against

15%

Finally, only 28% of Republican voters registered in Florida support a possible financial bailout for Puerto Rico, whose debt exceeds 72 billion dollars. Among Democrats, 45% would support the bailout.

The exclusive poll published by Noticias Univision and The Washington Post consulted 450 Republican voters registered in the state between March 2nd and March 5th of 2016 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.6 %.

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