Cuba cracks down on dissent to prevent repeat of July 11 protests

The organizer of pro-democracy rallies planned for Monday, dissident playwright Yunior García, was blocked from leaving his home on Sunday by Cuban state security agents.

García had planned to walk to Havana's waterfront promenade, the Malecón, carrying a white rose a day ahead of the main protests. As he attempted to communicate from a window of his apartment, pro-government neighbors living above him lowered a large Cuban flag to hide him from view.

The ruling Communist party banned Monday's protests, which it says are a US-backed attempt at overthrowing the government.

As the island’s ruling Communist Party faces its latest challenge to six decades of single party rule, Cuban-Americans in Miami and pro-democracy activists around the world were watching to see what happened.

However, unlike the spontaneous protests of July 11, which surprised everyone, Monday's march was announced well in advance, giving Cuban State Security plenty of time to quell it before it erupted.

"The government has had a lot of experience in this, years and years. July 11 realy shocked them the way only a magnitide 7 earthquake would have. They have been catching up ever since," said Brian Latell, the CIA's former Cuba analyst," he added.

"What has happened in Havana today besides a huge security presence on the streets? Yunior Garcia can't even lean out of his window and even hand gesture outside," he added.

July protests

In July, thousands took to the streets in cities across the country in the biggest anti-government protests on the Communist-run island in decades, resulting in a fierce crack down by the government. Hundreds were rounded up and jailed, while others were placed under house arrest.

The Cuban government’s security apparatus is renowned for its repressive police tactics, as well as counter-intelligence network of Ministry of Interior agents and neighborhood spies, known as the Committee for the Defense of the Revolutuion (CDR).

Protests are rare on the Caribbean island, where opposition to the government is tightly controlled by a mixture of laws suppressing freedom of expression, as well as state control over education and jobs.

In the wake of the July protests, García set up a group on Facebook called Archipiélago, which sought official permission to organize peaceful demonstrations in the Cuban capital, Havana, and other cities to demand their civil rights and the release of political prisoners.

Permission was denied, but dissidents insisted that the protest would go ahead anyway. Cuba's foreign minister, Bruno Rodríguez, vowed to prevent tham, using "our laws, our constitution and the strictest adherence to the principles of our socialist state of law and social justice.”

South Florida exiles

The cause of dissidents in Cuba, and a broader rejection of socialist rule, is a longstanding political issue in South Florida, home of a large Cuban exile population as well as Venezuelans and Nicaraguans. Republicans complain the administration of Joe Biden is not doing enough to support the cause of freedom in Cuba.

On Sunday, the Assembly of the Cuban Resistance, a coalition of exile opposition groups, said it estimated that more than a thousand cars participated in a caravan to support Garcia's protest.

Cuba's Article 56 of the constitution grants the right to demonstrate but in practice Cuba restricts freedom of speech using vague laws regarding alleged disorderly conduct and criticism of the island's one-party system.

Ironically, Cuba's National Assembly last month approved new laws broadening citizens' legal rights from arbitrary arrest.

"Instead of embracing and respecting its citizens' constitutional rights to assembly, demonstration, and association, Cuba’s government has chosen silence and evasion," said the Center for Democracy in the Americas, a non-partisan group that fosters engagement with Cuba and opposes the U.S. embargo.

"The response by Cuba’s government towards Archipiélago is an infringement on the constitutional and human rights of its citizens," it added.

Motives of the protest

The July protests were sparked by food and medicine shortages, price increases and the government's handling of Covid-19. The island, which had kept the Covid-19 pandemic under control in 2020, saw infections explode this summer. As of Monday, the government had reported a total of 959,000 cases and 8,282 deaths.

Cuba's economy shrank by 11% last year and its economic conditions have only worsened since then, though the pandemic has eased. After an intense vaccination campaign, the Cuban government says Covid-19 cases and deaths have dropped 80% since the summer.

Tourism reopening

With the pandemic now back under control the government is hoping for a quick economic recovery. It reopened its borders on Monday after announcing that it had vaccinated most of its population, hoping to revive its heavily tourism-based economy.

Tough restrictions due to the pandemic have devastated its tourism industry which relies mostly on visitors from Canada, Europe and Latin America. On top of that, former President Donald Trump banned most travel to the island from the United States, though Cuban Americans are still allowed to visit family members.

But as the global tourism industry begins to restart Cuba’s high vaccination rate could help it rebound. Among countries with more than 1 million people, Cuba is vaccinating faster than any other, according to a Reuters analysis of official data.

Unprecedented challenge?

But the combination of political unrest and economic hardship, means the government faces an uphill battle, perhaps unprecedented in its 60-years in power. Not since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet Union, its former ally, a year later, has Cuba faced such internal pressure for change.

While it can still count on leftists allies in the hemisphere, notably Venezuela which provides cheap oil, as well as Nicaragua and Bolivia, it has few places to turn for money.

Communism, without Fidel

Cuban officials like to insist it’s a mistake to underestimate the resilience and discipline of Communist Party’s political base and institutional loyalty nationwide.

"The power of the regime for preserving itself should not be underestimated," agreed Latell. "They have very good counter-intelligence. All of these youth groups are penetrated by state security," he added.

Before July, the largest protest Cuba had seen since the start of Castro's communist revolution took place in August 1994 on Havana's Malecón seafront. It was swiftly put down by the personal intervention of Fidel Castro, the island’s legendary revolutionary leader.

Almost 30 years later though, the scenario is very different. For the first time in six decades Cuba is now no longer governed by one of the Castro brothers - Fidel and Raúl Castro – who took power after the Cuban revolution in 1959.

Fidel Castro died in 2016 but his brother Raúl – to the surprise of some - managed to maintain the Communist Party’s grip on power, in part by taking some liberalizing steps to open up the economy to private enterprise.

Mobile technology

But, the arrival of the internet and the proliferation of smart phones has given Cubans a new outlet to voice their political dissatisfaction with the government. They also have access to social media platforms and chats, which provide new ways to demand their rights, communicate and organize.

It also helped the viral spread of a YouTube rap and reggaeton hit 'Patria y Vida' (Fatherland and Life), that has gotten under the skin of the government by offering a new, positive twist to the communist slogan, 'Patria o Muerte' (Fatherland or Death).

However, mobile internet access is provided by a state-run company making it easy for the government to block communications whenever it wants.

Díaz-Canel

Earlier this year Cuba's Communist Party announced Díaz-Canel as the successor to Raúl Castro as the party's first secretary, making him the most powerful figure in the country. He already replaced Raúl Castro as Cuba's president in 2019.

Before leaving office in April, Raúl Castro, 90, expressed confidence in the future saying that he was handing over the leadership to a younger generation "full of passion and anti-imperialist spirit".

But many question whether he has the same political instincts and revolutionary strength to maintain the party in power. In Cuba it’s hard to know as political polling is banned, but judging by the sentiment of Cubans on the street and in social media, the Communist Party has been steadily losing support for years and increasingly relies on political and economic control, as well as repressive methods.

Díaz-Canel is seen as loyal to the Castros and single-party communist rule. At 61, Díaz-Canel lacks the revolutionary legacy and combat medals of his predecessors, most of who are now dead on entering their 90s.

Some argue that Díaz-Canel may have little option but to further liberalize the centrally controlled economy in order to survive, just as the Castro brothers did when things were going badly in the 1990s and again after the 2008-2010 recession.

Diaz-Canel has expressed hope of renewed dialogue with the United States after the election of Joe Biden. Relations soured under Donald Trump who ended a historic warming of relations under President Barack Obama. Trump reimposed tough travel restrictions and other sanctions on Cuba’s military-run hotels and other financial enterprises.

But the White House has made it clear that a shift in its policy towards Cuba is not among Biden's top foreign policy priorities, so any possible changes to the current sour relationship are likely a long way off.