Among Hispanics, Clinton leads Trump by 48 points

Donald Trump often claims that Hispanics love him and that they will vote for him in the November presidential election. But a new and exclusive survey by Univision News suggests that a large majority of Hispanic voters have a very poor opinion of the Republican Party’s presumptive nominee and are planning to vote for his Democratic rival, Hillary Rodham Clinton. The former secretary of state holds 67% of the intended vote among Hispanic registered voters nationwide, while Trump has 19%, Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson 4%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein 2%, according to the bipartisan survey conducted by the Democratic firm Bendixen & Amandi and the Republican firm The Tarrance Group. This is the first comprehensive survey of Latino voters by Univision Noticias since the end of the presidential primaries and caucuses.

Clinton’s wide favorable margin falls within the range typically necessary for a Democratic presidential candidate to win both the Latino vote and the presidency. And it reflects the negative perception that Hispanic voters have of the real estate tycoon. While 69% say they have a favorable opinion of the Democratic contender, more than three fourths, 77%, state they have an unfavorable opinion of Trump. Furthermore, most of the voters interviewed believe that Clinton’s personality and temperament are better suited than Trump’s to fulfill the duties of president (64% - 14%) and that she would do a better job improving the lives of Hispanics (67% - 12%) and handling the nation’s economy (58% - 23%), immigration issues (63% - 17%), healthcare (63% - 16%) and the terrorist threat (58% - 22%).

But not all is rosy for Clinton among Hispanic voters. The exclusive survey by Univision News reveals that a sizeable 42% consider her to be a liar while only 39% say she is not. These figures reflect a reaction to the extensive federal investigation into the manner in which Clinton managed her emails when she was secretary of state. At the end of the investigation, earlier this month, FBI Director James Comey said he found no reason to press criminal charges, but harshly criticized Clinton’s misuse of her email. However, Hispanic voters judge Trump even more severely, as nearly three fourths, or 73%, believe the Republican presidential candidate is a racist.

That perception of racism is nurtured by the verbal attacks Trump has directed against a federal judge of Mexican origin, Gonzalo Curiel, who is presiding over a trial in California regarding allegations of fraud against Trump University. Seventy-four percent of those surveyed consider Trump’s opinions about Curiel to be offensive. The perception that the Republican candidate is a racist also appears to be nurtured by his insistence on building a wall along the border between the United States and Mexico. An overwhelming 76% of Hispanic voters reject this idea while only 19% support it, according to Univision News’ bipartisan survey. Most, 52%, also reject Trump’s original idea of temporarily banning Muslims from entering the United States - even though a substantial 34% support such a ban.

During a period of political polarization, marked by racial tension, heightened gun violence and a terrorist threat, Hispanic voters feel highly motivated to vote in November. Almost eight out of 10 say they eagerly await the opportunity to vote for president, while 96% recognize the importance of doing so and an overwhelming 97% state that it is very likely they will go to the polls. Among the issues motivating Hispanics to vote is immigration, with 18% of Hispanics saying it’s the most important issue. That’s exceeded only by jobs and the economy, which 25% of Hispanics feel is most important. Concern over terrorism has moved into third place within this category, with 12%, followed by gun control, with 9%.

Immigration’s growing importance as an electoral motivator among Hispanics appears to be a reflection of the continuous failure among politicians to pass immigration reform. In the Univision News survey, 44% of Latino voters blame Republicans in Congress for the slow progress in this area during the last eight years, while 21% blame President Barack Obama, and 12% blame the Supreme Court, which recently failed to uphold Obama’s executive orders that benefitted four million undocumented immigrants. Seven percent of those surveyed also blamed Democrats in Congress.

Among other national issues, Univision News’ bipartisan survey indicates that six out of every 10 Hispanic voters would like a ban on the sale of military style assault weapons, such as that used by the gunman at the Pulse nightclub in Orlando, Florida. This preference is particularly high among women: 63%. A more complicated picture emerges with respect to Hispanic voters’ opinions on Promesa, the bill passed by Congress and signed into law by President Obama on July 1 aimed at dealing with the financial crisis in Puerto Rico, where the government declared a default on a $70 billion debt. Half of those interviewed said they were unaware of the nature of this measure, which will establish a controversial Financial Oversight and Management Board to oversee the restructuring of Puerto Rico’s debt. Among the other half of voters who did recognize it, 72% said they support it and only 18% said they were opposed.

The Republican Party continues to have a serious image problem among Hispanic voters, and not just because of their dislike for presidential candidate, Donald Trump. While 71% have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, 64% express an unfavorable opinion of the Republicans. And 33% believe that Trump’s controversial opinions about Judge Curiel are also those of his party. Two other parties that intend to have presidential candidates run in November are not well recognized among Hispanic voters. Forty-nine percent of those interviewed do not know of the Libertarian Party and 51 percent have not even heard of the Green Party.

For this exclusive survey, Univision News interviewed 1,000 Hispanics nationwide between July 1 and July 10, 2016. It has a margin of error of +/- 3%.

FULL SURVEY

Sample: 1,000 Hispanic registered voters. Dates of Interviews: July 1–July 10, 2016. Languages: English, Spanish. Margin of Error: +/-3 percentage points.