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Elecciones 2016

Among Hispanics, Clinton leads Trump by 48 points

Exclusive poll conducted by Bendixen & Amandi International and The Tarrance Group for Univision News
13 Jul 2016 – 3:32 PM EDT


If the presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?

Hillary Clinton

67%

Among Hispanic voters, Clinton enjoys a wide lead over Trump.

Donald Trump

19%

Gary Johnson

4%

Jill Stein

2%

Trump trails far behind in the percentage of Latino votes required (more than 40%) to win in November.

If the presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?

67%

19%

4%

2%

Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump

Gary Johnson

Jill Stein

Trump trails far behind in the percentage of Latino votes required (more than 40%) to win in November.

Among Hispanic voters, Clinton enjoys a wide lead over Trump.

Donald Trump often claims that Hispanics love him and that they will vote for him in the November presidential election. But a new and exclusive survey by Univision News suggests that a large majority of Hispanic voters have a very poor opinion of the Republican Party’s presumptive nominee and are planning to vote for his Democratic rival, Hillary Rodham Clinton. The former secretary of state holds 67% of the intended vote among Hispanic registered voters nationwide, while Trump has 19%, Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson 4%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein 2%, according to the bipartisan survey conducted by the Democratic firm Bendixen & Amandi and the Republican firm The Tarrance Group. This is the first comprehensive survey of Latino voters by Univision Noticias since the end of the presidential primaries and caucuses.

Which candidate do you trust would do a better job handling the economy?

Hillary Clinton

58%

Hillary Clinton would be better for the economy, according to Hispanic voters.

Donald Trump

23%

Gary Johnson

4%

Jill Stein

4%

Trump is a career businessman. But a clear majority of Hispanic voters believes that Clinton will manage the nation’s economy better than him and the other opponents.

Which candidate do you trust would do a better job handling the economy?

58%

23%

4%

2%

Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump

Gary Johnson

Jill Stein

Trump is a career businessman. But a clear majority of Hispanic voters believes that Clinton will manage the nation’s economy better than him and the other opponents.

Hillary Clinton would be better for the economy, according to Hispanic voters.


Clinton’s wide favorable margin falls within the range typically necessary for a Democratic presidential candidate to win both the Latino vote and the presidency. And it reflects the negative perception that Hispanic voters have of the real estate tycoon. While 69% say they have a favorable opinion of the Democratic contender, more than three fourths, 77%, state they have an unfavorable opinion of Trump. Furthermore, most of the voters interviewed believe that Clinton’s personality and temperament are better suited than Trump’s to fulfill the duties of president (64% - 14%) and that she would do a better job improving the lives of Hispanics (67% - 12%) and handling the nation’s economy (58% - 23%), immigration issues (63% - 17%), healthcare (63% - 16%) and the terrorist threat (58% - 22%).


What is your view of Donald Trump?

Hispanic voters have an overwhelmingly unfavorable opinion of Trump.

Unfavorable

77%

Favorable

Don’t know

20%

3%

A solid 69% have a favorable opinion of Clinton.

What is your view of Donald Trump?

Unfavorable

Favorable

77%

20%

Don’t know

3%

Hispanic voters have an overwhelmingly unfavorable opinion of Trump.

A solid 69% have a favorable opinion of Clinton.


But not all is rosy for Clinton among Hispanic voters. The exclusive survey by Univision News reveals that a sizeable 42% consider her to be a liar while only 39% say she is not. These figures reflect a reaction to the extensive federal investigation into the manner in which Clinton managed her emails when she was secretary of state. At the end of the investigation, earlier this month, FBI Director James Comey said he found no reason to press criminal charges, but harshly criticized Clinton’s misuse of her email. However, Hispanic voters judge Trump even more severely, as nearly three fourths, or 73%, believe the Republican presidential candidate is a racist.


Do you believe that Hillary Clinton is a liar?

No

Yes

39%

42%

Don’t know

19%

Hispanic voters are very divided as to whether Clinton is a liar.

Do you believe that Hillary Clinton is a liar?

Yes

No

42%

39%

Hispanic voters are very divided as to whether Clinton is a liar.

Don’t know

19%

Do you believe that Donald Trump is racist?

Yes

73%

No

20%

Don’t know

7%

Apparently due to statements he has made about Mexican immigrants, the wall along the border, and Judge Gonzalo Curiel, almost three fourths of Hispanic voters consider Donald Trump to be a racist.

Do you believe that Donald Trump is racist?

Yes

73%

No

20%

Don’t know

7%

Apparently due to statements he has made about Mexican immigrants, the wall along the border, and Judge Gonzalo Curiel, almost three fourths of Hispanic voters consider Donald Trump to be a racist.


That perception of racism is nurtured by the verbal attacks Trump has directed against a federal judge of Mexican origin, Gonzalo Curiel, who is presiding over a trial in California regarding allegations of fraud against Trump University. Seventy-four percent of those surveyed consider Trump’s opinions about Curiel to be offensive. The perception that the Republican candidate is a racist also appears to be nurtured by his insistence on building a wall along the border between the United States and Mexico. An overwhelming 76% of Hispanic voters reject this idea while only 19% support it, according to Univision News’ bipartisan survey. Most, 52%, also reject Trump’s original idea of temporarily banning Muslims from entering the United States - even though a substantial 34% support such a ban.


Do you support or oppose building a wall along the United States border with Mexico?

Hispanic voters overwhelmingly reject Trump’s proposal to build a wall along the border with Mexico.

Oppose

76%

Don’t know

Support

5%

19%

More than three fourths of Hispanic voters oppose Trump’s proposal to construct a wall along the border with Mexico.

Do you support or oppose building a wall along the United States border with Mexico?

Oppose

Support

76%

19%

Don’t know

Hispanic voters overwhelmingly reject Trump’s proposal to build a wall along the border with Mexico.

5%

More than three fourths of Hispanic voters oppose Trump’s proposal to construct a wall along the border with Mexico.

Do you support or oppose a temporary ban on all Muslims entering the United States?

Oppose

Support

52%

34%

Don’t know

14%

Donald Trump has proposed temporarily prohibiting all Muslims from entering the United States. However, a thin majority of Hispanic voters reject that proposal.

Do you support or oppose a temporary ban on all Muslims entering the United States?

Oppose

Support

52%

34%

Don’t know

14%

Donald Trump has proposed temporarily prohibiting all Muslims from entering the United States. However, a thin majority of Hispanic voters reject that proposal.


During a period of political polarization, marked by racial tension, heightened gun violence and a terrorist threat, Hispanic voters feel highly motivated to vote in November. Almost eight out of 10 say they eagerly await the opportunity to vote for president, while 96% recognize the importance of doing so and an overwhelming 97% state that it is very likely they will go to the polls. Among the issues motivating Hispanics to vote is immigration, with 18% of Hispanics saying it’s the most important issue. That’s exceeded only by jobs and the economy, which 25% of Hispanics feel is most important. Concern over terrorism has moved into third place within this category, with 12%, followed by gun control, with 9%.


Which one of the following issues will be the most important in deciding your vote for President in November 2016?

Jobs and the economy

25%

Immigration

18%

Terrorism

12%

Gun Control

9%

Health

7%

Which one of the following issues will be the most important in deciding your vote for President in November 2016?

25%

18%

12%

9%

7%

Jobs and

the economy

Immigration

Terrorism

Gun Control

Health


Immigration’s growing importance as an electoral motivator among Hispanics appears to be a reflection of the continuous failure among politicians to pass immigration reform. In the Univision News survey, 44% of Latino voters blame Republicans in Congress for the slow progress in this area during the last eight years, while 21% blame President Barack Obama, and 12% blame the Supreme Court, which recently failed to uphold Obama’s executive orders that benefitted four million undocumented immigrants. Seven percent of those surveyed also blamed Democrats in Congress.


Who do you think is most to blame for there being so little progress on immigration reform over the past eight years?

Republicans

in Congress

44%

President

Obama

21%

The Supreme

Court

12%

Democrats

in Congress

7%

Don’t know

16%

Various political players share responsibility for the lack of progress on immigration reform, according to Hispanic voters. But a large number, 44%, blame Republicans in Congress.

Who do you think is most to blame for there being so little progress on immigration reform over the past eight years?

44%

21%

16%

12%

7%

Republicans

in Congress

President

Obama

Don’t know

The Supreme

Court

Democrats

in Congress

Various political players share responsibility for the lack of progress on immigration reform, according to Hispanic voters. But a large number, 44%, blame Republicans in Congress.


Among other national issues, Univision News’ bipartisan survey indicates that six out of every 10 Hispanic voters would like a ban on the sale of military style assault weapons, such as that used by the gunman at the Pulse nightclub in Orlando, Florida. This preference is particularly high among women: 63%. A more complicated picture emerges with respect to Hispanic voters’ opinions on Promesa, the bill passed by Congress and signed into law by President Obama on July 1 aimed at dealing with the financial crisis in Puerto Rico, where the government declared a default on a $70 billion debt. Half of those interviewed said they were unaware of the nature of this measure, which will establish a controversial Financial Oversight and Management Board to oversee the restructuring of Puerto Rico’s debt. Among the other half of voters who did recognize it, 72% said they support it and only 18% said they were opposed.


Do you support or oppose a ban on the sale of military style assault weapons, such as the gun used in the Orlando nightclub shooting?

Support

Oppose

60%

37%

Don’t know

3%

Six out of every ten Hispanic voters are of the opinion that there should be a ban against the sale of military style assault weapons, such as the gun used at the Pulse nightclub in Orlando, Florida.

Do you support or oppose a ban on the sale of military style assault weapons, such as the gun used in the Orlando nightclub shooting?

Support

Oppose

60%

37%

Don’t know

3%

Six out of every ten Hispanic voters are of the opinion that there should be a ban against the sale of military style assault weapons, such as the gun used at the Pulse nightclub in Orlando, Florida.


The Republican Party continues to have a serious image problem among Hispanic voters, and not just because of their dislike for presidential candidate, Donald Trump. While 71% have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, 64% express an unfavorable opinion of the Republicans. And 33% believe that Trump’s controversial opinions about Judge Curiel are also those of his party. Two other parties that intend to have presidential candidates run in November are not well recognized among Hispanic voters. Forty-nine percent of those interviewed do not know of the Libertarian Party and 51 percent have not even heard of the Green Party.

For this exclusive survey, Univision News interviewed 1,000 Hispanics nationwide between July 1 and July 10, 2016. It has a margin of error of +/- 3%.


FULL SURVEY

How likely are you to vote in the November presidential election?
How closely are you following the 2016 presidential race?
How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting in the 2016 presidential election?
Thinking about the general election in November, how important is it for you to vote?
In your opinion is this November’s presidential election more important, less important or about the same in importance as previous presidential elections?
Which one of the following issues will be the MOST important in deciding your vote for president in November 2016?
What is your view of the Democratic Party?
What is your view of the Republican Party?
What is your view of the Libertarian Party?
What is your view of the Green Party?
What is your view of Barack Obama?
What is your view of Hillary Clinton?
What is your view of Donald Trump?
What is your view of Gary Johnson?
What is your view of Jill Stein?
If the presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?
Between now and November, how likely is it that you will change your mind about which candidate you are voting for?
If a residential candidate were to select a Hispanic vice presidential running mate, would you be more or less likely to vote for that ticket, or would it have no impact on your vote?
Which candidate do you think has a better personality and temperament to serve as president?
Which candidate do you trust to do a better job improving the lives of Hispanics living in the United States?
Which candidate do you trust to do a better job handling the economy?
Which candidate do you trust to do a better job handling immigration issues?
Which candidate do you trust to do a better job handling healthcare?
Which candidate do you trust to do a better job handling the threat of terrorism?
Which candidate do you think is more honest and trustworthy?
Overall, which candidate do you think most closely shares your opinion on the issues?
Who do you think is most to blame for there being so little progress on immigration reform over the past eight years?
Recently the Supreme Court upheld a decision by a lower court that barred President Obama from using Presidential action alone to grant deferred legal action (commonly referred to as DACA and DAPA) for undocumented immigrants in the United States who entered the country before their 16th birthday and before June 2007, or are the parents of legal United States citizens. This decision means it is very likely that no action will be taken on reforming our immigration system until at least January 2017.
Does the ruling make it more likely that you will vote in the November election, less likely to vote or will it have no impact?
Do you support or oppose building a wall along the United States border with Mexico?
Do you support or oppose a temporary ban on all Muslims entering the United States?
Do you support or oppose a ban on the sale of military style assault weapons, such as the gun used in the Orlando nightclub shooting?
Have you seen, read, or heard anything about the debate and legislation in Congress to resolve the debt crisis that Puerto Rico is currently facing?
Do you support or oppose the establishment of the Financial Oversight and Management Board to oversee the restructuring of Puerto Rico’s debt?
How much have you heard about Donald Trump’s comments regarding Federal Judge Gonzalo Curiel, an American of Mexican heritage, and his ability to preside over the Trump University fraud case?
Do you believe that Donald Trump’s views on Judge Curiel’s ability to fairly do his job represent the views of the Republican Party as a whole or represent only Trump's views?
Are Donald Trump’s views on Judge Curiel’s ability to fairly do his job offensive to you, or are they not offensive to you?
Do you believe that Donald Trump is racist?
Do you believe that Hillary Clinton is a liar?
Would you consider voting for a Republican candidate in future presidential elections?
If the Republican Party decided to nominate someone other than Donald Trump at its convention in July, would you be more likely to vote for the Republican candidate, less likely to vote for the Republican candidate or would it have no impact on your vote?
What is the highest level of education that have you have completed?
Where were you born?
In what country were your parents and/or grandparents born?
Do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent or do you belong to another party?
Which party do you lean toward?
Would you say your views on most political matters are liberal, moderate, or conservative?


Sample: 1,000 Hispanic registered voters. Dates of Interviews: July 1–July 10, 2016. Languages: English, Spanish. Margin of Error: +/-3 percentage points.


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