The handful of Florida counties that could decide the 2016 election
Florida has once again become an important battleground state and could decide the election this year. In the past two decades, presidential candidates have won Florida by margins of only a few hundred thousand votes. The most extreme case was in 2000, when George W. Bush won by 500 votes. With Florida, he won the presidency.

WINNER'S
VOTE MARGIN
Year 1992
BUSH
40.9%
+100,607
CLINTON
39.0%
Year 1996
CLINTON
48.0%
+302,436
DOLE
42.3%
Year 2000
BUSH
48.8%
+537
GORE
48.8%
Year 2004
BUSH
52.1%
+380,978
KERRY
47.1%
Year 2008
OBAMA
51.0%
+236,450
MCCAIN
48.2%
Year 2012
OBAMA
50.0%
+74,309
ROMNEY
49.1%

WINNER'S
VOTE MARGIN
Year 1992
40.9%
BUSH
+100,607
CLINTON
39.0%
Year 1996
48.0%
CLINTON
+302,436
DOLE
42.3%
Year 2000
BUSH
48.8%
+537
GORE
48.8%
Year 2004
BUSH
52.1%
+380,978
KERRY
47.1%
Year 2008
OBAMA
51.0%
+236,450
MCCAIN
48.2%
Year 2012
OBAMA
50.0%
+74,309
ROMNEY
49.1%

1992
1996
2000
+537
+100,607
+302,436
WINNER'S
VOTE MARGIN
WINNER'S
VOTE MARGIN
WINNER'S
VOTE MARGIN
BUSH
CLINTON
CLINTON
DOLE
BUSH
GORE
40.9%
39.0%
48.0%
42.3%
48.8%
48.8%
2004
2008
2012
+380,978
+236,450
+74,309
WINNER'S
VOTE MARGIN
WINNER'S
VOTE MARGIN
WINNER'S
VOTE MARGIN
BUSH
KERRY
OBAMA
MCCAIN
OBAMA
ROMNEY
52.1%
47.1%
51.0%
48.2%
50.0%
49.1%

1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
+100,607
+302,436
+537
+380,978
+236,450
+74,309
WINNER'S
VOTE MARGIN
WINNER'S
VOTE MARGIN
WINNER'S
VOTE MARGIN
WINNER'S
VOTE MARGIN
WINNER'S
VOTE MARGIN
WINNER'S
VOTE MARGIN
BUSH
CLINTON
CLINTON
DOLE
BUSH
GORE
BUSH
KERRY
OBAMA
MCCAIN
OBAMA
ROMNEY
40.9%
39.0%
48.0%
42.3%
48.8%
48.8%
52.1%
47.1%
51.0%
48.2%
50.0%
49.1%
Polls in this swing state give Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton the lead. But Eduardo Gamarra, a political scientist at Florida International University, warns that it's still too early to tell. "The race has not been decided," he says. Statistically, Trump still has a shot.
The battle for the state's 29 electoral votes is concentrated in a dozen counties in central Florida - the famous I-4 corridor, between Orlando and Tampa - and the Southeast. In 2014, both of these areas were home to 56% of the state's voting-age citizens. Among eligible voters, nearly two million were Hispanic.

Eligible voters
(citizens 18 and older, 2014)
70,000
150,000
250,000
500,000
750,000
Florida
13,673,530
Orlando
Central region
4,118,720
I4
Tampa
Southeast region
3,602,245
More than half of eligible Florida voters are concentrated
in central and southeast Florida.
56.5%
Central +
southeast
7,720,965
Rest of Florida
5,952,565
Volusia
Palm Beach
Seminole
Orange
Broward
Pasco
Pinellas
Miami
Dade
Hillsborough
Polk
Osceola

Eligible voters
(citizens 18 and older, 2014)
70,000
150,000
250,000
500,000
750,000
Florida
13,673,530
Orlando
Central region
4,118,720
I4
Tampa
Southeast region
3,602,245
More than half of eligible Florida voters are concentrated in central and southeast Florida.
56.5%
Central +
southeast
7,720,965
Rest of Florida
5,952,565
Volusia
Palm Beach
Seminole
Orange
Broward
Pasco
Pinellas
Miami
Dade
Hillsborough
Polk
Osceola

Florida
13,673,530
Central region
Orlando
4,118,720
I4
Eligible voters
Tampa
(citizens 18 and older, 2014)
70,000
150,000
250,000
500,000
750,000
Miami
Southeast region
3,602,245
More than half of eligible Florida voters are concentrated in central and southeast Florida.
56.5%
Volusia
Palm Beach
Seminole
Central +
southeast
Orange
Broward
7,720,965
Pasco
Pinellas
Miami
Dade
Hillsborough
Rest of Florida
5,952,565
Polk
Osceola

More than half of eligible Florida voters are concentrated in central and southeast Florida.
FLORIDA
13,673,530
Orlando
56.5%
Central region
4,118,720
Central +
southeast
Rest of
Florida
5,952,565
I4
Tampa
7,720,965
Eligible voters
(citizens 18 and older, 2014)
70,000
150,000
250,000
500,000
750,000
Volusia
Palm Beach
Seminole
Miami
Orange
Broward
Southeast region
Pasco
3,602,245
Pinellas
Miami
Dade
Hillsborough
Polk
Osceola

More than half of eligible Florida voters are concentrated in central and southeast Florida.
FLORIDA
13,673,530
Orlando
56.5%
Central region
Central +
southeast
4,118,720
Rest of
Florida
5,952,565
I4
Tampa
7,720,965
Eligible voters
(citizens 18 and older, 2014)
Volusia
70,000
150,000
250,000
500,000
750,000
Palm Beach
Seminole
Orange
Miami
Broward
Pasco
Southeast region
Pinellas
3,602,245
Miami
Dade
Hillsborough
Polk
Osceola
THE HEARTLAND: A CHANGING AND COVETED VOTE
The I-4 corridor is critical to the election, says University of South Florida professor Susan MacManus. It’s home to a large number of registered voters, and divided almost evenly between Republicans and Democrats.
Among Central Florida counties, Hillsborough is a good indicator for the state. "Traditionally, it has been the best predictor of how the state will vote in the presidential election," says MacManus.

% of the vote in
HILLSBOROUGH county
% of the vote in Florida
50%
0
50%
Reagan
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Reagan
G.H.W. Bush
Clinton
Clinton
G.W. Bush
G.W. Bush
Obama
Obama
50
0
50
In recent years, Hillsborough County election results have resembled results
in the whole state.
% of the vote in
ORANGE county
% of the vote in Florida
50%
0
50%
Reagan
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Reagan
G.H.W. Bush
Clinton
Clinton
G.W. Bush
G.W. Bush
Obama
Obama
50
0
50
In the last two elections, the number of Democratic voters has grown and is now above the state average.

% of the vote
in Florida
% of the vote in
HILLSBOROUGH county
50%
0
50%
Reagan
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Reagan
G.H.W. Bush
Clinton
Clinton
G.W. Bush
G.W. Bush
Obama
Obama
50
0
50
In recent years, Hillsborough County election results have resembled results
in the whole state.
% of the vote in
ORANGE county
% of the vote
in Florida
50%
0
50%
Reagan
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Reagan
G.H.W. Bush
Clinton
Clinton
G.W. Bush
G.W. Bush
Obama
Obama
50
0
50
In the last two elections, the number of Democratic voters has grown and is now above the state average.

% of the vote in
HILLSBOROUGH county
% of the vote in
ORANGE county
% of the vote in Florida
% of the vote in Florida
50%
0
50%
50%
0
50%
Reagan
Reagan
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Reagan
Reagan
G.H.W. Bush
G.H.W. Bush
Clinton
Clinton
Clinton
Clinton
G.W. Bush
G.W. Bush
G.W. Bush
G.W. Bush
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
50
0
50
50
0
50
In the last two elections, the number of Democratic voters has grown and is now above the state average.
In recent years, Hillsborough County election results have resembled results
in the whole state.

% of the vote
in Florida
% of the vote
in Florida
% of the vote in
HILLSBOROUGH county
% of the vote in
ORANGE county
50%
0
50%
50%
0
50%
Reagan
Reagan
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Reagan
Reagan
G.H.W. Bush
G.H.W. Bush
Clinton
Clinton
Clinton
Clinton
G.W. Bush
G.W. Bush
G.W. Bush
G.W. Bush
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
50
0
50
50
0
50
In the last two elections, the number of Democratic voters has grown and is now above the state average.
In recent years, Hillsborough County election results have resembled results
in the whole state.
THE SOUTHEAST: EVERY VOTE COUNTS
In Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties, voter turnout will be key. All three have voted overwhelmingly Democratic (especially Palm Beach and Broward), so Republicans will have to go after every vote.
Democratic candidate John Kerry won in these three counties in the 2004 election, in some cases with more than 60% of the vote. But George W. Bush won more than 800,000 votes in those counties - giving him a victory in Florida.
Cubans in South Florida are critical for Republicans, says Gamarra, although he says that this community is changing. On one hand, each new generation tends to lean more Democratic. On the other hand, many older Cuban Americans "feel abandoned" by the Republican Party and disappointed by Trump, but are unwilling to vote for Clinton.
WHO CAN MOBILIZE MORE VOTERS?
Ahead of the election, the key may be the ability of the two parties to register new voters. According to MacManus, Republicans are mobilizing first-time voters. These are people who "are tired of politics as usual and are attracted to Trump," she says.
But the same ideas that are seducing new Republican voters may also encourage votes for the Democrats. "It's a paradox,” Gamarra said. “What Trump says about immigration is what has succeeded in mobilizing whites, but it is also what’s probably mobilizing Hispanics to participate."
The question is whether new Hispanic voter registrations will be enough to offset an increase in Trump voters.

4,690,721
4,431,400
Hispanics
Hispanics
737,589
501,344
DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
So far, more than 12 million people are registered to vote in Florida. Since January of this year, more than 230,000 new voters have registered as Republicans. Democrats added more than 150,000 voters in the same period.
MORE HISPANIC VOTERS
There are nearly two million Latinos registered to vote in Florida, mostly as Democrats. Since the 2008 election, the number of Hispanics registered as Democrats has grown by 43%. Among Republicans, the number of registered Latino voters grew by 12%.
The Democratic Party is working hard to register Puerto Ricans newly arrived to the I-4 region, where the Puerto Rican population has increased greatly in recent years, MacManus says. In 2010, 264,939 Puerto Ricans resided in Orange, Osceola, Polk and Seminole counties. Four years later, that number was 324,061.
The candidates are also eying independents and Hispanic millennials in the state. Nearly three million voters in Florida don't identify with a party. Of these, more than 630,000 are Hispanic -- more than the number of Latino Republicans. Gamarra explains that this number reflects a national pattern, in which the number of independents "has grown significantly."
Young Hispanics are reluctant to take sides. In the United States, Latinos under age 30 make up 44% of eligible Hispanic voters, says Gamarra. "Characteristically, millennials don’t register or vote. And that's the big concern of strategists, especially the Democrats."
A number of questions remain: How Hispanics will vote, how many new voters Trump will attract, who independents and young people will choose. "This year, all the rules, all the knowledge we have, is in question," Gamarra says.
SOURCE: Juan Clavijo (Cifras & Conceptos), American Community Survey (Census Bureau), Pew Research Center and Florida Division of Elections.