President Donald Trump could be defeated in Texas, a conservative state which has not elected a Democratic presidential candidate for over 40 years.
Days away from the third Democratic debate in Houston and over a year from the 2020 presidential election, an exclusive poll by Univision News found that 40% of registered voters in the state say they will vote for the Democrat who prevails in the party’s primary, while 33% say they will support president Trump. If undecided voters leaning one way or the other are included, the advantage would be 47% to 42% in favor of the Democrats.
The Latino vote could be decisive. A large majority of Hispanics (69%) surveyed in the state said they intend to vote for the Democratic candidate, compared with 19% who plan to support Trump (also including undecided voters who are leaning one way or another).
According to Census data, Hispanics represented 40% of the population of Texas last year and during the 2018 elections Hispanics constituted more than 24% of registered voters. The Univision national poll, conducted by Latino Decisions and North Star Opinion, measured the presidential preferences of Hispanics in this election cycle and included a specific module for Texas with the support of the Center for Mexican-American Studies at the University of Houston in which included a sample of all state voters.
Senator Bernie Sanders would win the state (48% against 42%). Similarly, former Vice President Joe Biden would win the state (47% to 43%), and the same would happen with Senator Warren (44% to 42%).
In the state survey, Beto O'Rourke's favorability rating equals that of Biden and exceeds that of Sanders, and his margin was significantly better when Hispanics respondents were asked about their voting intention (26% vs. 19% for Biden and 16% for Sanders ).
Nationally, Biden and Sanders appear as the clear favorites among Hispanic voters. Both recovered the support they lost after the first Democratic debates in June, when there was a significant rearrangement in Hispanic voter intention.
Now, 22% of Hispanic voters say they will support Biden, while 20% plan to vote for Sanders, similar to the percentages that existed before the televised debates. By contrast, the advantage held by Kamala Harris evaporated. Her support among Latinos fell to 8%, after having led with 23% after the June debates.
The favorability of Biden and Sanders has increased significantly, another sign that their leadership has consolidated among potential Hispanic voters. Sanders went from 59% before the first debate to 67% today. Biden went from 56% to 64%. The survey also found a favorable growth of Senator Elizabeth Warren, from 44% to 53%.
According to the national poll, President Trump's management style continues to generate a strong rejection among Hispanics, with four out of five registered voters disapproving of the president's performance. At the same time, according to the survey, Democrats have gained support from Latinos who were undecided.
In this latest poll, which comes on the eve of Thursday's debate in Houston in which all the leading Democratic candidates will share the same stage for the first time, 62% of Latinos reported that they will support any Democrat who opposes the president.