Arizona is one of the states where the outcome in the upcoming midterm elections on November 8 could decide which party holds the majority in the new U.S. Senate when it reconvenes January 3, 2023.
The incumbent Democrat, former astronaut Mark Kelly is facing Republican Blake Masters in a close race, according to a poll by Univision News, the Center for Latino/os and American Politics Research (CLAPR) at Arizona State University and Northern Arizona University. Kelly currently has a slight lead over the Republican candidate, backed by former President Donald Trump. Voting intentions among registered voters in the state favor the Democrat by four points (44% vs. 40%), and the poll has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. The margin does not change among respondents who say they are certain they will vote (47% to 43%).
Latino voters, who represent 22.8% of the state's total electorate, according to the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO), back Kelly by a large 60% to 23% margin, and non-Hispanic white voters favor Masters by 46% to 39%.
Even closer is the state's gubernatorial race. According to the poll, Republican candidate Kari Lake - also endorsed by Trump - and Democratic candidate Katie Hobbs, are statistically tied (42% for Lake and 40% for Hobbs).
Again, Latinos lean toward the Democratic candidate (56% vs. 26%), and non-Hispanic whites lean toward the Republican (49% vs. 36%).
In the races for the House of Representatives, Republicans have a significant advantage among registered voters in Arizona (47% vs. 38%), even though Latinos lean overwhelmingly in favor of Democrats (57% vs. 27%).
Arizona is one of the states that was in the eye of the hurricane in the 2020 presidential election because of the unsubstantiated allegations of fraud made by Trump and his supporters.
On a scale of 0 to 10, with zero indicating that respondents believe President Joe Biden's election was illegitimate and ten that it was legitimate, voters overall gave the election a 5.79 rating, with 6.55 for Latinos and 5.52 for non-Hispanic whites).
But considered by party affiliation, the divide looks deeper. While Democrats rate the election 8.56 (high legitimacy), Republicans give it a rating of 3.2 (very low legitimacy).
To a question about whether their opinion about it has changed in the last two years, after an official audit found no irregularities in Biden's election, 53% of Republicans said no, adding that they viewed it as even more illegitimate than before. On the other hand, 75% of Democrats maintained their opinion that it was legitimate, and said their confidence in the result was stronger.
A question about the FBI's raid on Trump's Florida residence, Mar-a-Lago, in search of classified documents, obtained similar results. While 79% of Republican voters polled believe it was not justified, 91% of Democrats believe the opposite.
Inflation, common concern for Republicans and Democrats.
Voters are in broad agreement that the rising cost of living is the issue that the government and Congress should prioritize.
Republicans in particular have made the issue a central plank of their campaigns. About 63% of Republicans see it as a priority issue, versus 40% of Democrats, and 84% think their party would handle it much better than their opponents.
It’s a similar picture with border security, one of the central issues for Republicans during the Trump presidency. For 37% of Republicans it is an issue which the government and Congress should prioritize, against 6% of Democrats.
After inflation, it is the most important issue for Democrats, whose party took up the defense of the right to terminate a pregnancy after the Supreme Court overturned the 'Roe v. Wade' decision which guaranteed a federal right to abortion.
About 36% consider it one of the most important issues, compared to 13% of Republicans.
The poll, which interviewed 1,000 people in Arizona, was conducted by a bipartisan academic team led by Univision Polling Director and LBJ School professor Sergio García-Ríos, in collaboration with BSP Research and Shaw & Company Research.
Methodology: In collaboration with the Center for Latinas/os and American Politics Research (CLAPR) at Arizona State University, and Northern Arizona University, Univision News commissioned a representative survey with Arizona registered voters age 18 and over. Interviews for this survey were conducted between October 19 and October 26, 2022. Data were collected using both probability and non-probability sample sources for a total of 1000 observations. The overall margin of error for the combined sample is +/- 3.1 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level, including the design effect. The survey includes an oversample of Latino voters (n= 500, MOE +/- 4.4). The margin of sampling error may be higher for other subgroups. Surveys were administered in English or Spanish at the discretion of the respondent and included a mix of cell phone, landline telephone, text-to-web, and online self-completed interviews; all respondents were verified to be registered voters. We provide results for all registered voters ( n=1000) and among likely voters ( n = 669). The survey was overseen by Dr. Sergio Garcia-Rios, director of polling for Univision, and administered by BSP Research and Shaw & Co.