Joe Biden has a comfortable lead over Bernie Sanders in the Arizona primary and, if he is the Democratic nominee, he would beat Donald Trump in the state by a margin of 50% to 42%, according to a poll of registered voters conducted by Univision News and the Arizona State University’s Center for Latina/os and American Politics.
Biden could still convince many Latinos who prefer the Vermont senator, the poll also found.
According to the survey, 51% of Democrats registered to vote in the state support Biden, compared to 34% who prefer the Vermont senator in the March 17 primary. Sanders also has an advantage over Trump in the presidential election (48% versus 43%).
Among Latino Democratic voters, 44% favor Sanders, while 39% are with Biden, a gap that is within the poll's margin of error. Arizona will grant 67 delegates in Tuesday's primary. A quarter of those eligible to vote in the state identify as Hispanic.
In the Univision poll, when Hispanic Democrats were asked whom they would support if their prefered candidate withdrew from the race, slightly more than half said they would vote for the Democrat regardless of who is nominated (59%), indicating that the former vice president could still win more Latino voters.
Also, in an eventual head-to-head contest with Trump, 61% of Latinos say they would choose Biden, while 14% are still undecided.
The candidate hoping to win the state should be aware that reducing health costs is the greatest concern of voters (33%). Among Latinos, 36% believe it is a problem that Congress and the president must address.
In the current coronavirus health crisis, 59% of Latino voters in Arizona believe the government is not doing enough to prevent its spread. Among all voters in the state, 50% believe that enough is being done, compared to 45% who believe that more should be done.
In the November elections it’s not only the presidency at stake. If they recapture the White House, the Democrats are hoping to pick up three seats in order to take back control of the U.S. Senate, which is now in the hands of the Republican Party. (They would need four seats if they fail to defeat Trump as the vice-president also serves as the president of the Senate).
The Univision poll found that Democrat Mark Kelly is favored to beat incumbent Republican Senator, Martha McSally, not only among Latinos but among all Arizona voters.
McSally is a veteran of the Air Force, appointed to the post by Republican Governor Doug Ducey after the death of Senator John McCain. In the special election, she faces Kelly, a former astronaut married to former congresswoman Gabby Giffords, who was shot in 2012 and now advocates for gun controls. Kelly announced her support for Biden the day before Super Tuesday.
In the Senate, Republicans have 53 seats and Democrats 45, plus the support of two independent senators. In November 2020, many more Republican senators will be on the ballot compared to 2018. If Democrats regain the Senate and maintain control in the House of Representatives, it would be the first time since 2009 that they are hold majorities in both houses of Congress.
Methodology: Univision News partnered with Arizona State University’s Center for Latina/os and American Politics Research School of Transborder Studies to commission a statewide poll of Arizona registered voters with an oversample of Arizona Latinos. The poll was implemented from March 6 – 11, 2020. The statewide portion (N=1,036) contains a margin of error of +/- 3.0 and the Latino portion (n=502) contains a margin of error of +/-4.4. Democratic primary vote choice was asked of 541 respondents statewide and carries a margin of error of +/- 4.2 and, and 305 Latino Democratic voters, +/- 5.6. Surveys were administered in English or Spanish at the discretion of the respondent and included a mix of cell phone, landline telephone and online self-completed interviews. All respondents are confirmed to be registered to vote. Respondents were randomly selected from the voter file and invitations for interviews were done by live caller, email, or text message. Invitations were bilingual at point of contact and allowed respondent to complete the interview in their language of choice. After data collection was complete a post-stratification weight was added to balance the data to the best known Census ACS data on the eligible voting population in Arizona. The survey was overseen by Dr. Sergio Garcia-Rios, director of polling for Univision, and administered by Latino Decisions.