Politics

Univision forecast: Latino vote will sink Trump in Florida

Hillary Clinton will win the key swing state of Florida thanks to the Latino vote, a Univision News election forecast predicts. Without Florida's electoral votes, Trump can't win in November.

Donald Trump will lose the election in Florida - the swing state with the most electoral votes - because most Latinos won't vote for him, Univision News predicts.

As a result, it's virtually impossible for him to win the White House due to the electoral college system, according to a a Univision data analysis of the key five swing states expected to determine the outcome in November.

The forecast, based on a statistical analysis of the presidential race, found that Hillary Clinton will win 48.39% of the vote in Florida, versus 44.87% for Trump.


Clinton will beat Trump by 3.52 points in Florida, Univision News predicts.

44.87

48.39

TRUMP

CLINTON

% of the Florida vote

The Democratic candidate will win Florida by approximately 297,000 votes.

4,083,000

votes

3,786,000

votes

44.87

48.39

TRUMP

CLINTON

% of the Florida vote

Clinton will win thanks to the Hispanic vote.

*percentage points

Hispanics: 12.0*

Hispanics: 5.8*

( 1,009,000 votes)

( 489,000 votes)

44.87

48.39

TRUMP

CLINTON

% of the Florida vote

Without Hispanic voters, Clinton would lose Florida by 3.2 points.

47.9

44.7

TRUMP

CLINTON

% of the Florida vote

Clinton will beat Trump by 3.52 points in Florida, Univision News predicts.

44.87

48.39

TRUMP

CLINTON

% of the Florida vote

The Democratic candidate will win Florida by approximately 297,000 votes.

4,083,000 votes

3,786,000 votes

44.87

48.39

TRUMP

CLINTON

% of the Florida vote

Clinton will win thanks to the Hispanic vote.

*Puntos porcentuales

Hispanics: 12.0*

Hispanics: 5.8*

( 1,009,000 votes)

( 489,000 votes)

44.87

48.39

TRUMP

CLINTON

% of the Florida vote

Without Hispanic voters, Clinton would lose Florida by 3.2 points.

47.9

44.7

TRUMP

CLINTON

% of the Florida vote

Based on data through Sept. 2. Independent candidates aren't included in the above graphic; they would win 6.74%.

THE ESSENTIAL STATE

Of all of the swing states, Florida has the largest number of electoral votes: 29. If he loses Florida, Donald Trump has no chance of attaining the 270 electoral votes needed to become president.


To win the presidency, a candidate must win at least 270 electoral votes

0

0

164

242

270

270

According to polls and historical trends, the candidates are guaranteed

164

242

and

The candidate who wins Florida will gain 29 electoral votes

0

0

164

242

270

270

Clinton only needs 28 to win the election

According to Univision's forecast, Trump will lose Florida

 

0

0

164

242

FLORIDA

270

270

Without Florida, Trump won't have enough electoral votes

Trump's defeat in Florida will stem primarily from the Hispanic vote, since Latinos have a growing influence in the state and show a clear preference for Clinton. According to our forecast, 18% of Florida voters in November will be Hispanic. Of those, 6 out of 10 will support the Democratic candidate.

Republicans still haven't found a way to reach Florida’s Latino voters. In 2012, President Barack Obama won Florida with a boost from Hispanics, and won reelection. He needed 58% of the Latino vote to win the state, but he won even more: 60%.


FLORIDA

% OF

HISPANIC VOTERS

IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Hispanics

9.2

1996

2000

2004

2008

2012

11.3

11.2

15.4

17.3

2016

18.5%

Projection

Hispanic vote

prediction (2016)

OTHERS

4.2%

CLINTON

TRUMP

64.5%

31.3%

FLORIDA

% OF

HISPANIC VOTERS

IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Hispanics

9.2

1996 election

2000 election

2004 election

2008 election

2012 election

11.3

11.2

15.4

17.3

2016

18.5%

Projection

Hispanic vote

prediction (2016)

OTHERS

4.2%

CLINTON

TRUMP

64.5%

31.3%

% OF

FLORIDA

HISPANIC VOTERS IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Hispanic vote

Hispanics

prediction for 2016

OTHERS

4.2%

TRUMP

18.5%

31.3%

17.3

15.4

11.3

11.2

9.2

CLINTON

2016

1996

2000

2004

2008

2012

64.5%

Projection

% OF

FLORIDA

HISPANIC VOTERS IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Hispanics

Hispanic vote

prediction for 2016

4.2%

OTHERS

TRUMP

31.3%

18.5%

17.3

15.4

11.2

11.3

9.2

CLINTON

64.5%

2016

1996

2000

2004

2008

2012

Projection

HOW THE PREDICTION WAS MADE

The Univision News forecast takes into account 19 election variables since 1996, including presidential race results, Latino voter turnout and governors' political affiliation. It also considers the current election context, through variables like unemployment, President Obama's approval rating, inflation, income levels, and campaign and party strategy.


FIVE HISPANIC SWING STATES

The Univision News forecast focuses on five swing states where Latinos have the most influence: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada and New Mexico.

The forecast shows a slight advantage for Trump in Arizona, and in all other states Clinton is predicted to win. Univision predicts the Democratic candidate will sweep the Latino vote in these five swing states.


GENERAL
HISPANICS

HOW LATINOS AFFECT THE FLORIDA VOTE

This tool allows users to see how the presidential election will be affected by Latino voter turnout in Florida. The forecast model estimates that if 682,066 Hispanics in Florida cast their ballots (26.3% of eligible Latino voters), Trump and Clinton would tie with 46.5% of the vote. Any other additional Hispanic votes would give Clinton the advantage.

For example, if half of eligible Hispanic voters in Florida cast their ballots, the Democratic candidate would win the state with 47.8% of the vote versus 45.4% for Trump.


62.0%
Hispanics votes: 1,606,887
44.9%
48.4%
DONALD TRUMP
HILLARY CLINTON


METHODOLOGY
The model calculates vote intention for the overall population and Hispanics. The margin of error of the results varies by state and population because of the quality and quantity of information available. The national forecast margin of error is between 0.4% and 2.9%; for the Hispanic population, the margin is around 4%. The latter is higher because there's less information available on Hispanics. Vote intention, margins of error and probability will likely be updated every two weeks until Election Day. Methodology and sources of information on the model can be found here. Note: In the chart "How Latinos affect the Florida vote" the number of voters was calculated by estimating the number of votes expected in 2016 with a projection of the historic growth of the population eligible to vote. The figure obtained was multiplied by the average Latino and non-Latino voter turnout in the last two presidential elections. With that figure, the percent of the overall and Hispanic vote for each candidate was estimated.

Ronny Rojas and Luis Melgar contributed to this report.


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