Politics

Univision poll: The Latino vote in 4 key swing states

An exclusive bipartisan voter survey by Bendixen & Amandi International and The Tarrance Group for Univision Noticias shows that Hillary Clinton holds a wide lead over Donald Trump among Hispanics in Florida, Arizona, Nevada and Colorado. However, her support among Hispanics does not match Obama's in 2012.
Por: Daniel Morcate,Mariano ZafrayLuis Melgar,
12 Sep 2016 – 12:35 PM EDT



If the election were today, who would you vote for?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

53%

68%

62%

65%

CLINTON

29%

18%

17%

19%

TRUMP

6%

5%

6%

5%

JOHNSON

2%

3%

3%

3%

STEIN

Clinton would win the Hispanic vote comfortably in four swing states: Florida, Arizona, Colorado and Nevada.

If the election were today, who would you vote for?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

Clinton would win the Hispanic vote comfortably in four swing states: Florida, Arizona, Colorado and Nevada.

53%

68%

62%

65%

CLINTON

29%

18%

17%

19%

TRUMP

6%

5%

6%

5%

JOHNSON

2%

3%

3%

3%

STEIN

If the election were today, who would you vote for?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

53%

68%

62%

65%

CLINTON

29%

18%

17%

19%

TRUMP

6%

5%

6%

5%

JOHNSON

2%

3%

3%

3%

STEIN

Clinton would win the Hispanic vote comfortably in four swing states: Florida, Arizona, Colorado and Nevada.

Barely 56 days before the presidential election, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by a wide margin among likely Hispanic voters in four battleground states where the Latino vote may prove to be decisive, according to an exclusive bipartisan survey conducted for Univision Noticias. The Democratic candidate leads her Republican opponent by a margin of three-to-one in three of these states and almost two-to-one in the fourth. If the elections were to take place today, Clinton would win among Hispanic voters by 68% to 18% in Arizona, 62% to 17% in Colorado, 65% to 19% in Nevada, and 53% to 29% in Florida, according to the poll conducted by the Democratic public opinion firm Bendixen & Amandi in conjunction with the Republican firm The Tarrance Group.

Clinton poll standing compared to Obama vote share in 2012

FL

AZ

CO

NV

53%

68%

62%

65%

CLINTON

Polls today

60%

74%

75%

71%

OBAMA

Elections 2012

Clinton has an important reason to be worried: her Hispanic support is lower than Obama’s was against Romney in these four swing states.

Clinton poll standing compared to Obama vote share in 2012

FL

AZ

CO

NV

Clinton has an important reason to be worried: her Hispanic support is lower than Obama’s was against Romney in these four swing states.

53%

68%

62%

65%

CLINTON

Polls today

60%

74%

75%

71%

OBAMA

Elections 2012

Clinton poll standing compared to Obama vote share in 2012

FL

AZ

CO

NV

53%

68%

62%

65%

CLINTON

Polls today

60%

74%

75%

71%

OBAMA

Elections 2012

Clinton has an important reason to be worried: her Hispanic support is lower than Obama’s was against Romney in these four swing states.

However, what may appear to be great news for the Democratic candidate may not be so good after all: While three of every four Hispanic voters in the four states surveyed are unlikely to change their minds between now and November, Clinton’s level of support among Hispanics lags behind the backing they gave Barack Obama in the same battleground states in 2012. This may indicate that Clinton has not campaigned as intensely or effectively among Hispanic communities in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, and Florida as Obama did four years ago. At least some Latino votes could go to alternative candidates, Gary Johnson, of the Libertarian Party, and Jill Stein, of the Green Party. They jointly get 10% of Hispanic voters’ support in the poll.

Do you think Clinton is a liar?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

46%

43%

42%

49%

YES

41%

43%

47%

41%

NO

13%

14%

11%

10%

Don’t

know

Hispanic voters in these four swing states are divided about whether Clinton is a liar.

Do you think Clinton is a liar?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

Hispanic voters in these four swing states are divided about whether Clinton is a liar.

46%

43%

42%

49%

YES

41%

43%

47%

41%

NO

13%

14%

11%

10%

Don’t

know

Do you think Clinton is a liar?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

46%

43%

42%

49%

41%

43%

47%

41%

NO

13%

14%

11%

10%

Don’t

know

Hispanic voters in these four swing states are divided about whether Clinton is a liar.

Another red flag for the former secretary of state is that she was considered to be a liar by a significant number of Hispanic voters who were interviewed. In Arizona, 43% consider her to be a liar compared to 43% who do not, while in Colorado it is 42% compared to 47%, in Florida it is 46% compared to 41%, and in Nevada it is 49% compared to 41%.


Trump recently expressed regret for sometimes saying ‘the wrong thing.’ Do you thing Trump will change his tone?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

28%

17%

18%

20%

YES

63%

80%

74%

74%

NO

9%

3%

8%

6%

Don’t

know

A strong majority of Hispanic voters think it’s probable that Trump will continue to make insensitive comments.

Trump recently expressed regret for sometimes saying ‘the wrong thing.’ Do you thing Trump will change his tone?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

A strong majority of Hispanic voters think it’s probable that Trump will continue to make insensitive comments.

28%

17%

18%

20%

YES

63%

80%

74%

74%

NO

9%

3%

8%

6%

Don’t

know

Trump recently expressed regret for sometimes saying ‘the wrong thing.’ Do you thing Trump will change his tone?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

28%

17%

18%

20%

YES

63%

80%

74%

74%

NO

9%

3%

8%

6%

Don’t

know

A strong majority of Hispanic voters think it’s probable that Trump will continue to make insensitive comments.

But Clinton’s problem with Hispanic voters pales in comparison to Trump. The real estate magnate has recently sought to make amends, expressing regret for having made certain insensitive statements over the course of the campaign. He also met with Hispanic business leaders and activists in New York and travelled to Mexico in an effort to improve his image among Latino voters. But Univision’s survey indicates that these maneuvers have not delivered the desired results – at least not among Hispanics who plan to vote in the four states polled. Approximately eight out of every 10 persons interviewed have an unfavorable opinion of Trump in Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada. Seven out of every 10 think the same way in Florida. Of greater concern for Trump perhaps is that a vast majority may believe that he will not change his tone during the remainder of the campaign. In Arizona 80% of those interviewed believe that Trump will continue to make insensitive remarks; in Colorado and Nevada 74% believe likewise, as do 63% in Florida. Time is running out for the Republican candidate to improve the negative perception that this segment of the voting population has of him.

Who is better prepared to be president?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

52%

62%

62%

67%

CLINTON

27%

17%

14%

17%

TRUMP

5%

4%

6%

3%

JOHNSON

1%

1%

1%

3%

STEIN

Don’t

know

15%

16%

17%

10%

By wide margins, the majority of Hispanic voters in these four swing states think Clinton is better prepared to be president.

Who is better prepared to be president?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

By wide margins, the majority of Hispanic voters in these four swing states think Clinton is better prepared to be president.

52%

62%

62%

67%

CLINTON

27%

17%

14%

17%

TRUMP

5%

4%

6%

3%

JOHNSON

1%

1%

1%

3%

STEIN

Don’t

know

15%

16%

17%

10%

Who is better prepared to be president?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

52%

62%

62%

67%

CLINTON

27%

17%

14%

17%

TRUMP

5%

4%

6%

3%

JOHNSON

1%

1%

1%

3%

STEIN

Don’t

know

15%

16%

17%

10%

By wide margins, the majority of Hispanic voters in these four swing states think Clinton is better prepared to be president.

In comparing the qualifications of the two candidates, Clinton is also doing much better than Trump. The overwhelming majority of Hispanic voters in Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada believe the former senator from New York has a better personality and temperament for being president than Trump, while 53% of Hispanic voters in Florida believe the same thing.


Who inspires greater confidence in improving the lives of Hispanics?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

56%

64%

65%

68%

CLINTON

26%

16%

13%

15%

TRUMP

5%

3%

4%

3%

JOHNSON

1%

1%

2%

2%

STEIN

A wide majority of Hispanic voters in these four swing states think Clinton will improve their lives.

Who inspires greater confidence in improving the lives of Hispanics?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

A wide majority of Hispanic voters in these four swing states think Clinton will improve their lives.

56%

64%

65%

68%

CLINTON

26%

16%

13%

15%

TRUMP

5%

3%

4%

3%

JOHNSON

1%

1%

2%

2%

STEIN

Who inspires greater confidence in improving the lives of Hispanics?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

56%

64%

65%

68%

CLINTON

26%

16%

13%

15%

TRUMP

5%

3%

4%

3%

JOHNSON

1%

1%

2%

2%

STEIN

A wide majority of Hispanic voters in these four swing states think Clinton will improve their lives.

Likewise, most believe that Clinton would manage the economy and the challenges of terrorism and immigration more effectively - and that she would try harder to improve the lives of Hispanics in the United States.


Which one of the following issues will be the most important in deciding you vote in November?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

Jobs and the Economy

25%

25%

28%

26%

Immigration

12%

18%

14%

19%

Education

11%

13%

9%

14%

Immigration has emerged as the issue that most motivates Hispanic voters after jobs and the economy.

Which one of the following issues will be the most important in deciding you vote in November?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

Immigration has emerged as the issue that most motivates Hispanic voters after jobs and the economy.

Jobs and the Economy

25%

25%

28%

26%

Immigration

12%

18%

14%

19%

Education

11%

13%

9%

14%

Which one of the following issues will be the most important in deciding you vote in November?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

Jobs and the Economy

25%

25%

28%

26%

Immigration

12%

18%

14%

19%

Education

11%

13%

9%

14%

Immigration has emerged as the issue that most motivates Hispanic voters after jobs and the economy.

In the survey, immigration finished in a strong second place among the issues that would motivate Hispanics the most to vote in this presidential election, especially in the country’s Western states. That was the response of 18% in Arizona, 14% in Colorado, 19% in Nevada, and 12% in Florida. Only jobs and the economy had more weight as a motivating factor. Education and healthcare came in third and fourth place, respectively, even though Latino voters in Florida also expressed special concern about terrorism.

A few days ago, Trump made some statements in which he reiterated his original proposal to deport some 11 million undocumented persons, while also issuing comments suggesting he would allow some of them to stay in the country. Univision’s survey suggests that those apparently contradictory statements by the Republican contender may have confused and divided Hispanic. As a result, there are more Hispanics who believe that, if elected, Trump would allow some of the undocumented persons to remain in the country than there are those who believe he would deport all 11 million.


Who would you vote for in the election for senator?

Arizona

50%

35%

Ann

Kirkpatrick

John

McCain

Colorado

65%

19%

Michael

Bennet

Darryl

Glenn

Florida

46%

39%

Patrick

Murphy

Marco

Rubio

Nevada

58%

24%

Catherine

Cortez Masto

Joe

Heck

Who would you vote for in the election for senator?

Arizona

Colorado

65%

50%

35%

19%

Ann

Kirkpatrick

John

McCain

Michael

Bennet

Darryl

Glenn

Florida

Nevada

58%

46%

39%

24%

Patrick

Murphy

Marco

Rubio

Catherine

Cortez Masto

Joe

Heck

Who would you vote for in the election for senator?

Arizona

50%

35%

Ann

Kirkpatrick

John

McCain

Colorado

65%

19%

Michael

Bennet

Darryl

Glenn

Florida

46%

39%

Patrick

Murphy

Marco

Rubio

Nevada

58%

24%

Catherine

Cortez Masto

Joe

Heck

In an encouraging result for the Republican Party, the survey suggests that Trump’s lack of popularity among Hispanic voters does not necessarily affect the party’s other candidates in these crucial states. The GOP’s four senatorial candidates are faring better than its presidential candidate. In Florida, for example, Senator Marco Rubio is ahead of his Democratic opponent, Patrick Murphy, 46% to 39% among Latino voters, thanks in large part to conservative Cuban-American voters. In Arizona, the Democratic challenger, Ann Kirkpatrick, is ahead of the Republican incumbent John McCain 50%-35%. In Nevada, Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto leads Republican Joe Heck 58%-24%. In Colorado, Democrat Michael Bennet is ahead of Republican Darryl Glenn 65%-19%. And the four Republican candidates for the Senate candidates have better favorability ratings than Trump has.


Are you in favor or against the amendment to allow marijuana use in Nevada?

Against

48%

In favor

47%

Don’t

know

5%

Hispanic voters in Nevada are very divided over whether or not to allow the regulated use of marijuana.

Are you in favor or against the amendment to allow marijuana use in Nevada?

Against

Hispanic voters in Nevada are very divided over whether or not to allow the regulated use of marijuana.

48%

In favor

47%

Don’t

know

5%

Are you in favor or against the amendment to allow marijuana use in Nevada?

Against

48%

In favor

47%

Don’t

know

5%

Hispanic voters in Nevada are very divided over whether or not to allow the regulated use of marijuana.


Are you in favor or against the amendment to regulate the use of marijuana in Arizona?

In favor

49%

Against

42%

Don’t

know

9%

There are slightly more Hispanic voters in Arizona who support rather than oppose the regulated sale of marijuana.

Are you in favor or against the amendment to regulate the use of marijuana in Arizona?

In favor

49%

Against

42%

There are slightly more Hispanic voters in Arizona who support rather than oppose the regulated sale of marijuana.

Don’t

know

9%

Are you in favor or against the amendment to regulate the use of marijuana in Arizona?

In favor

49%

Against

42%

Don’t

know

9%

There are slightly more Hispanic voters in Arizona who support rather than oppose the regulated sale of marijuana.

Univision Noticias’ survey also shows that Hispanic voters in Arizona and Nevada are very much divided as to whether to authorize the regulated use of marihuana, an issue that will appear on the ballot in their respective states. On the other hand, in Florida, more than six out of every 10 persons support a state initiative to authorize the medical use of marihuana. In Colorado, Amendment 69, better known as ColoradoCare, will be submitted to a vote. This would be a healthcare payment system designed to finance healthcare for Colorado residents partly by raising state income taxes by 10%. Among Hispanic voters 39% reject it and 37% are in favor, which suggests that the proposed amendment has an uncertain future.


Are you in favor or against the medical use of marijuana in Florida?

In favor

63%

Against

28%

Don’t

know

9%

Hispanic voters strongly support the use of medical marijuana in Florida.

Are you in favor or against the medical use of marijuana in Florida?

In favor

Hispanic voters strongly support the use of medical marijuana in Florida.

63%

Against

28%

Don’t

know

9%

Are you in favor or against the medical use of marijuana in Florida?

In favor

63%

Against

28%

Don’t

know

9%

Hispanic voters strongly support the use of medical marijuana in Florida.

Finally, Clinton and Trump’s running mates are virtually unknown among Hispanic voters, according to the survey. More than half of those interviewed were unable to recognize Tim Kaine, the Democratic vice presidential candidate, and Mike Pence, his Republican counterpart. This is especially telling given the fact that in recent weeks Kaine has granted several interviews in Spanish to the Spanish-language media.

The bipartisan survey, conducted on behalf of Univision Noticias, interviewed 1,600 Hispanic registered voters, 400 in each of the four battleground states, between August 24 and September 3, 2016. It has a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.


RELACIONADOS:PoliticsUnited StatesGráficos NoticiasHillary ClintonDonald Trump
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