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"New York, New York" primary day is here

Liza Minnelli's take on the New York primary contest: "If I can make it there, I'm gonna make it anywhere, It's up to you, New York, New York."
18 Abr 2016 – 07:32 PM EDT
New York Crédito: Getty Images

By definition New York is important, the self-assured Empire State, with the Big Apple at its core.

But when it comes to election primaries nobody usually pays much attention. Then, of course, 2016 is no ordinary year.

In fact, to quote one of the candidates, this year the outcome in New York is quite simply "huge."

Or, as Liza Minnelli famously sang in Martin Scorcese's 1977 film 'New York, New York': "It's up to you, New York, New York."

On Tuesday evening, for the first time in decades, everyone will be avidly awaiting the possibly crucial results that could determine the race for the presidential nomination of both parties.

"We are very excited ... this is our New Hampshire moment," Ed Cox, chairman of the Republican Party in New York told National Public Radio on Tuesday, referring to the small primary state that traditionally has undue influence because of its early voting date in February. "Except we have more delegates," he noted, pointing out that there are 95 Republican delegates at stake on Tuesday, comapred to only 23 in New Hampshire.

With another 247 delegates delegates up for grabs in the Democratic party race (plus 44 super-delegates), the state is a big trophy in the race for the nomination.

The current frontrunners, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, could make the kind of numerical progress that would put significant distance between them and the other contenders.

Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz will be studying the math, the clock and polls; as time runs down for the campaigns.

John Kasich is struggling to contend and many wonder who is he stealing votes from by staying in a race that he has little chance of winning.

So votes New York

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the state of New York is the nation's fourth largest state with almost 20 million inhabitants, of whom about 8.5 million live in the city of New York.

According to the Pew Research Center, the state's population is 18.6% Hispanic, with an estimated 1.9 million eligible Latino voters. Of those, 42% are of Puerto Rican origin, and only 7% Mexican, in contrast to the rest of the country where most Latino voters are of Mexican origin (59%).

An analysis of the state vote shows two major trends: on the one hand the area north and central regions have a low population density and are Republican-leaning. On the other hand, the urban areas that are home to the majority of the population, such as the cities of New York, Buffalo and Rochester, are historically Democrat.

The primary landscape for Republicans

USA Primarias

Delegados republicanos

Necesarios para ganar: 1,237
Rubio (retirado de la campaña)

Dónde han ganado

El color de cada estado muestra al candidato con mayor % de voto.

New York's 95 Republican delegates are divided by electoral district, each with three delegates. The candidate who gets more than 50% of the votes in each district takes all. If the winner gets less than half he gets 2 delegates and the second place finisher wins the remaining delegate.

After two and a half months of primary voting with numerous controversies, as well as several tough weeks including a loss in Wisconsin, Trump continues to lead the Republican race with 744 delegates, needing 1,237 to win the nomination.

The real estate tycoon leads all polls in New York, in one poll by a 43 point margin ahead of Kasich.

A win in New York with more than half of the votes would put Trump back on track for the nomination.

Cruz, is in second place with 545 delegates and comes into New York with strong momentum after his emphatic win in Wisconsin.

But his ultra conservative profile and derrogatory comments about "New York values" are out of step with one of the more progressive states. Polls place him last among Republicans.

Failure in New York would portend badly for Cruz with other progressive states voting in the coming weeks.

With only 144 delegates Kasich is not a threat - at least not unless there is a brokered convention. His moderate Republican profile has given some oxygen to his campaign In New York, with polls shwoping hom in second place.

According to several polls, Kasich measures up best of all Republicans in a hypothetical presidential election against Clinton, something his campaign has tried to use in recent days to capture more votes.

The primary landscape for Democrats

USA Primarias

Delegados demócratas

Necesarios para ganar: 2,383

Dónde han ganado

El color de cada estado muestra al candidato con mayor % de voto.

Democrats have a prize of 247 delegates (plus 44 superdelegates) which will be split proportionally according to the result.

Clinton already has accumulated 1,298 delegates and 469 superdelegates, coming into New York with a wide lead over Sanders who has 1,079 delegates and 31 superdelegates.

Clinton also leads Sanders in New York polls by 13-14 points.

She badly needs a win after losing in seven of the last eight states (Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming).

Both candidates have sought to boast their New York credentials: Clinton for representing New York in the Senate between 2001 and 2008; and Sanders because he was born in Brooklyn.

Sanders got a boost at the weekend for his campaign platform of tackling inequality and corporate greed when he met Pope Francisco at the Vatican.

But his campaign is mathematically in dire straits and he can't afford to lose too many delegates in New York.