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Sanders consolidates among Hispanic Democrats as Bloomberg joins the battle: Univision poll

The Vermont senator has risen 10 points since September, while former Vice President Joe Biden's campaign has stalled. Just months after entering the presidential race, Bloomberg is the third most favored, according to a new poll by Univision News and the Latino Community Foundation.
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18 Feb 2020 – 12:09 PM EST

Bernie Sanders has cemented his support among Hispanic voters. The Vermont senator is now the most favored candidate among Latinos who say they intend to vote for the Democratic party, with 30% now backing him in the race for the nomination.

Sanders gained 10 points in voter preference among Hispanic Democrats since September, leaving former Vice President Joe Biden in his wake who remained stuck on 21%, according to a new national poll by Univision News and the Latino Community Foundation.

Even more surprising, billionaire Mike Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York, who waited until November to enter the contest, has managed to garner 18% of Latino Democrats surveyed, leaving him in a virtual tie for second place with Biden (the poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.8%). They are followed by Elizabeth Warren with 10%, similar to where she stood in September.

The exclusive poll of Latino registered voters, held between February 9 and 14, shows that the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, Pete Buttigieg, has failed to make inroads, with only 5% support among Hispanic Democrats. Despite his strong performance in Iowa and New Hampshire, one in five Hispanics says they don't know enough about him.

With a smaller field of opponents now after the departure of Joaquin Castro, the only Hispanic candidate, and several others who had gained some support in the Latino community - such as Kamala Harris and Beto O'Rourke - the poll indicates that it is Sanders who has emerged strongest among Hispanics. Biden on the hand has failed to gain ground, while Bloomberg has emerged as a new option for those looking for a moderate candidate.

One of the great attractions of the Sanders campaign with Hispanics is his health plan. In poll after poll, Latino voters have expressed concern about health costs and shown their support for a ‘Medicare for All’ system, such as that proposed by the Vermont senator.

On this occasion, one in five of the Hispanics registered to vote said that lowering medical costs was the main issue that the President and Congress should address, while another 83% gave said they supported ‘Medicare for All’.

According to Census data, Latinos have the lowest percentage of coverage thro ugh private policies (50%), while 20% of Hispan ics under 65 do not have health insurance.

However, in a hypothetical face-off against Trump, the margin of preference narrows, with Warren (67%), Biden (67%) and Sanders (66%) leading the Democratic candidates. Buttigieg received the lowest percentage of support (59%), though he also had the highest percentage of undecided voters (18%).

All the Democratic candidates would comfortably outmatch Trump among Latino voters in a presidential contest: two out of three say they will vote for the Democratic candidate. Trump's support ranges from 18% against Warren to 28% against Bloomberg.

Despite the impeachment trial, Trump's approval increased from 22 to 27% among Latinos since September. While 59% agreed with the impeachment process, 41% of Latinos consulted said it was "a waste of time and Democrats should focus on issues that help people."

As for the president's economic policies, half (50%) of Latino voters report not having benefited, while 17% say they have benefited only a little, 18% say they have seen some benefit and 15% say they have benefited a lot.

Methodology: Univision Noticias partnered with the Latino Community Foundation to conduct a national survey of Latino registered voters, with an oversample of Latinos in Nevada. The poll was implemented from February 9 – 14, 2020 and a total of 1,306 Latino registered voters completed the survey. The national portion (n=1,000) contains a margin of error of +/- 3.1 and the Nevada portion (n=306) contains a margin of error of +/- 5.6. Democratic primary vote choice was asked of 667 respondents nationally and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.8 and in Nevada 210 Democratic voters, +/- 6.7. Surveys were administered in English or Spanish at the discretion of the respondent and included a mix of cell phone, landline telephone and online self-completed interviews. All respondents are confirmed to be registered to vote and that they consider themselves to be Hispanic or Latina/o. Respondents were randomly selected from the voter file and invitations for interviews were done by live caller or email. Invitations were bilingual at point of contact and allowed respondent to complete the interview in their language of choice. The survey was overseen by Dr. Sergio Garcia-Rios, director of polling for Univision, and administered in collaboration by Latino Decisions and North Star Opinion Research.