Politics

Clinton’s advantage among Hispanics increases in Florida and Colorado and her confidence margin is boosted in key states

Hillary Clinton has gained support among Hispanics thanks to her performance in the first presidential debate and a Spanish-language TV and radio campaign, according to an exclusive survey by Bendixen & Amandi International and The Tarrance Group for Univision News.
6 Oct 2016 – 1:07 PM EDT
ESPAÑOL

If the presidential elections were to be held today, for whom would you vote?

FLORIDA

Clinton

58%

53%

29%

28%

Trump

SEP

OCT

COLORADO

Clinton

66%

62%

Trump

18%

17%

SEP

OCT

Hillary Clinton would win the Hispanic vote over trump in four swing states: Florida, Arizona, Colorado and Nevada. And she has increased her advantage in two: Florida and Colorado.

ARIZONA

Clinton

68%

66%

Trump

18%

18%

SEP

OCT

NEVADA

Clinton

65%

65%

Trump

19%

20%

SEP

OCT

If the presidential elections were to be held today, for whom would you vote?

FLORIDA

Clinton

58%

53%

29%

28%

Trump

SEP

OCT

COLORADO

Clinton

66%

62%

Trump

18%

17%

SEP

OCT

Hillary Clinton would win the Hispanic vote over Trump in four swing states: Florida, Arizona, Colorado and Nevada. And she has increased her advantage in two: Florida and Colorado.

ARIZONA

Clinton

68%

66%

Trump

18%

18%

SEP

OCT

NEVADA

Clinton

65%

65%

Trump

19%

20%

SEP

OCT

If the presidential elections were to be held today, for whom would you vote?

FLORIDA

COLORADO

Clinton

Clinton

66%

62%

58%

53%

29%

28%

Trump

Trump

18%

17%

SEP

OCT

SEP

OCT

Hillary Clinton would win the Hispanic vote over Trump in four swing states: Florida, Arizona, Colorado and Nevada. And she has increased her advantage in two: Florida and Colorado.

NEVADA

ARIZONA

Clinton

Clinton

68%

65%

65%

66%

Trump

Trump

18%

18%

19%

20%

SEP

OCT

SEP

OCT

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton has consolidated her lead over her Republican rival Donald Trump among registered Hispanic voters in four potentially decisive states, according to a new bipartisan poll conducted exclusively for Univision News. Clinton leads the New York businessman in the intention of the Latino vote by more than three to one in Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada; and by more than two to one in Florida. In addition, the survey conducted by the Democratic firm Bendixen & Amandi and the Republican firm The Tarrance Group reveals that the former Secretary of State increased her advantage by five percentage points over Trump in the crucial state of Florida, and four percentage points in Colorado.


Who is more honest and trustworthy?

FLORIDA

Clinton

51%

41%

Trump

27%

27%

SEP

OCT

COLORADO

Clinton

62%

48%

Trump

15%

15%

SEP

OCT

The percentage of Hispanic voters that consider Clinton to be honest and trustworthy has increased notably in three key states. The percentage of Hispanic voters that consider Trump to be honest and trustworthy is stagnant.

ARIZONA

Clinton

53%

52%

Trump

16%

15%

SEP

OCT

NEVADA

Clinton

55%

49%

Trump

18%

17%

SEP

OCT

Who is more honest and trustworthy?

FLORIDA

Clinton

51%

41%

Trump

27%

27%

SEP

OCT

COLORADO

Clinton

62%

48%

Trump

15%

15%

SEP

OCT

The percentage of Hispanic voters that consider Clinton to be honest and trustworthy has increased notably in three key states. The percentage of Hispanic voters that consider Trump to be honest and trustworthy is stagnant.

ARIZONA

Clinton

53%

52%

Trump

16%

15%

SEP

OCT

NEVADA

Clinton

55%

49%

Trump

18%

17%

SEP

OCT

Who is more honest and trustworthy?

FLORIDA

COLORADO

Clinton

Clinton

62%

51%

48%

41%

Trump

Trump

15%

15%

27%

27%

SEP

OCT

SEP

OCT

The percentage of Hispanic voters that consider Clinton to be honest and trustworthy has increased notably in three key states. The percentage of Hispanic voters that consider Trump to be honest and trustworthy is stagnant.

NEVADA

ARIZONA

Clinton

Clinton

55%

53%

52%

49%

Trump

Trump

18%

16%

17%

15%

SEP

OCT

SEP

OCT

Other important survey results suggest that Clinton has gained ground among Hispanic voters in this final phase of the presidential race thanks to her good performance in the first presidential debate, held at Hofstra University in New York on September 26, and her first radio and TV ad campaign in Spanish. For example, the percentage of Latino voters who consider Clinton to be honest and reliable increased significantly from the previous survey in Florida, Colorado, and Nevada. At the time of that survey, conducted about a month ago, the debate had not yet taken place, nor had commercial ads aired showing the Democratic candidate slamming her Republican rival.


Which candidate do you think has a better personality and temperament to serve as president?

FLORIDA

Clinton

62%

53%

24%

24%

Trump

SEP

OCT

COLORADO

Clinton

73%

59%

Trump

15%

13%

SEP

OCT

The percentage of Hispanics who believe that Clinton has a better character and temperament to be president also increased in three swing states.

ARIZONA

71%

Clinton

67%

Trump

14%

11%

SEP

OCT

NEVADA

69%

Clinton

63%

Trump

17%

15%

SEP

OCT

Which candidate do you think has a better personality and temperament to serve as president?

FLORIDA

Clinton

62%

53%

24%

24%

Trump

SEP

OCT

COLORADO

Clinton

73%

59%

Trump

15%

13%

SEP

OCT

The percentage of Hispanics who believe that Clinton has a better character and temperament to be president also increased in three swing states.

ARIZONA

71%

Clinton

67%

Trump

14%

11%

SEP

OCT

NEVADA

69%

Clinton

63%

Trump

17%

15%

SEP

OCT

Which candidate do you think has a better personality and temperament to serve as president?

FLORIDA

COLORADO

Clinton

73%

Clinton

62%

59%

53%

Trump

24%

24%

Trump

15%

13%

SEP

OCT

SEP

OCT

The percentage of Hispanics who believe that Clinton has a better character and temperament to be president also increased in three swing states.

ARIZONA

NEVADA

71%

Clinton

69%

Clinton

67%

63%

Trump

Trump

17%

14%

15%

11%

SEP

OCT

SEP

OCT

Moreover, those same states saw a considerable increase in the percentage of Latino voters who believe that Clinton has a better personality and temperament to be president of the United States.

By contrast, with just a little over a month to the election, Donald Trump is running out of time to improve his image and possibilities among Hispanic voters in the four studied swing states. The percentage of those who hold an unfavorable opinion of the real estate mogul remains very high in the four states, and even increased slightly in two of them: Arizona and Florida.

If the elections were to be held today, for whom would you vote?

(Florida Cuban Americans)

Hillary Clinton

41%

Donald Trump

41%

Undecided

?

13%

Surprisingly, Hillary Clinton now equals Donald Trump when it comes to Cuban American voting intention in the state of Florida.

Error margin: +- 7.5%

If the elections were to be held today, for whom would you vote?

(Florida Cuban Americans)

41%

41%

13%

?

Hillary

Clinton

Donald

Trump

Undecided

Surprisingly, Hillary Clinton now equals Donald Trump when it comes to Cuban American voting intention in the state of Florida.

Error margin: +- 7.5%

If the elections were to be held today, for whom would you vote?

(Florida Cuban Americans)

Surprisingly, Hillary Clinton now equals Donald Trump when it comes to Cuban American voting intention in the state of Florida.

41%

41%

13%

?

Hillary

Clinton

Donald

Trump

Undecided

Error margin: +- 7.5%

Clinton has made good use of her opponent’s unpopularity among Hispanics and now even appears tied with Trump on the voting intentions of Florida’s Cuban Americans, who have traditionally voted for Republicans in presidential contests. Both candidates have the support of 41% of those voters, according to the new survey. This is particularly significant considering that Trump traveled to Miami last month specifically to court the Cuban-American vote and pledged to reverse President Barack Obama’s deal that reopened relations and limited trade with Cuba unless the Cuban regime restores political freedoms on the island and frees political prisoners. Clinton’s progress among Cuban-American voters may reflect a recent Newsweek report that showed that a company controlled by Trump violated the Cuban embargo in 1998.


Do you believe that Donald Trump’s campaign is racist, anti-Semitic and homophobic or are the media and Democrats exaggerating his relationship with these groups?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

Racist, antisemitic, homophobic

57%

68%

70%

69%

The media is exaggerating

38%

26%

24%

25%

Doesn’t know

5%

6%

6%

6%

In these four states, wide majorities of Hispanic voters consider Trump’s campaign to be racist, anti-Semitic and homophobic.

Do you believe that Donald Trump’s campaign is racist, anti-Semitic and homophobic or are the media and Democrats exaggerating his relationship with these groups?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

Racist, antisemitic, homophobic

57%

68%

70%

69%

The media is exaggerating

38%

26%

24%

25%

Doesn’t know

5%

6%

6%

6%

In these four states, wide majorities of Hispanic voters consider Trump’s campaign to be racist, anti-Semitic and homophobic.

Do you believe that Donald Trump’s campaign is racist, anti-Semitic and homophobic or are the media and Democrats exaggerating his relationship with these groups?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

In these four states, wide majorities of Hispanic voters consider Trump’s campaign to be racist, anti-Semitic and homophobic.

Racist, antisemitic, homophobic

57%

68%

70%

69%

The media is exaggerating

38%

26%

24%

25%

Doesn’t know

6%

6%

5%

6%

Trump will face an uphill struggle if he tries to improve his image among Hispanic voters in the few weeks remaining in the race. When asked whether the campaign of the Republican candidate is racist, anti-Semitic, and homophobic, 57% of respondents said yes in Florida, 68% in Arizona, 70% in Colorado, and 69% in Nevada.

In addition, the number of Hispanic voters in the four swing states who think Trump plans to deport all 11 million undocumented immigrants increased significantly in relation to the previous survey. By contrast, in those same states more Hispanic voters think that Clinton would achieve comprehensive immigration reform if elected than those who disagree.


Do you believe that Hillary Clinton’s health is a serious concern in the campaign or is it being blown out of proportion by the media and the Republicans?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

Serious problem

26%

16%

24%

25%

Exaggerated

69%

78%

72%

66%

Doesn’t know

5%

6%

4%

9%

A wide majority of Hispanic voters believe Clinton’s health problems have been exaggerated.

Do you believe that Hillary Clinton’s health is a serious concern in the campaign or is it being blown out of proportion by the media and the Republicans?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

Serious problem

26%

16%

24%

25%

Exaggerated

69%

78%

72%

66%

Doesn’t know

9%

5%

6%

4%

A wide majority of Hispanic voters believe Clinton’s health problems have been exaggerated.

Do you believe that Hillary Clinton’s health is a serious concern in the campaign or is it being blown out of proportion by the media and the Republicans?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

A wide majority of Hispanic voters believe Clinton’s health problems have been exaggerated.

Serious problem

26%

16%

24%

25%

Exaggerated

69%

78%

72%

66%

Doesn’t know

5%

6%

4%

9%

Respondents overwhelmingly said that both Republicans and the media have exaggerated Hillary Clinton’s health problems. Very few actually think that these problems are serious.


(Among those who believe that the media is biased in how it reports the presidential campaign)

Who is the media prejudiced in favor of?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

53%

55%

54%

55%

Clinton

25%

26%

28%

29%

Trump

?

22%

19%

18%

16%

Doesn’t know

More Hispanics than not believe that Clinton would achieve immigration reform if she were elected president.

(Among those who believe that the media is biased in how it reports the presidential campaign)

Who is the media prejudiced in favor of?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

53%

55%

54%

55%

Clinton

25%

26%

28%

29%

Trump

?

22%

19%

18%

16%

Doesn’t know

More Hispanics than not believe that Clinton would achieve immigration reform if she were elected president.

(Among those who believe that the media is biased in how it reports the presidential campaign)

Who is the media prejudiced in favor of?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

More Hispanics than not believe that Clinton would achieve immigration reform if she were elected president.

53%

55%

54%

55%

Clinton

25%

26%

28%

29%

Trump

?

22%

19%

18%

16%

Doesn’t know


What would a Trump administration do with undocumented immigrants?

FLORIDA

Allow some

to stay

54%

48%

33%

29%

Deport all

undocumented

SEP

OCT

ARIZONA

Allow some

to stay

51%

45%

42%

35%

Deport all

undocumented

SEP

OCT

Hispanic voters are divided over whether Trump would deport all undocumented immigrants. But the percentage of those who believe he would has increased.

COLORADO

Allow some

to stay

49%

42%

37%

32%

Deport all

undocumented

SEP

OCT

NEVADA

Allow some

to stay

48%

41%

40%

41%

Deport all

undocumented

SEP

OCT

What would a Trump administration do with undocumented immigrants?

FLORIDA

Allow some

to stay

54%

48%

33%

29%

Deport all

undocumented

SEP

OCT

ARIZONA

Allow some

to stay

51%

45%

42%

35%

Deport all

undocumented

SEP

OCT

Hispanic voters are divided over whether Trump would deport all undocumented immigrants. But the percentage of those who believe he would has increased.

COLORADO

Allow some

to stay

49%

42%

37%

32%

Deport all

undocumented

SEP

OCT

NEVADA

Allow some

to stay

48%

41%

40%

41%

Deport all

undocumented

SEP

OCT

What would a Trump administration do with undocumented immigrants?

FLORIDA

ARIZONA

Allow some

to stay

Allow some

to stay

54%

51%

48%

45%

33%

29%

42%

35%

Deport all

undocumented

Deport all

undocumented

SEP

OCT

SEP

OCT

Hispanic voters are divided over whether Trump would deport all undocumented immigrants. But the percentage of those who believe he would has increased.

NEVADA

COLORADO

Allow some

to stay

Allow some

to stay

48%

49%

42%

41%

40%

41%

37%

32%

Deport all

undocumented

Deport all

undocumented

SEP

OCT

SEP

OCT

However, a clear majority also felt that the media have shown bias in covering the presidential race - and that this biased coverage has mainly favored the Democratic candidate. Throughout the current campaign Donald Trump and his advisers have complained vehemently that Hillary Clinton receives less media scrutiny.

Trump and Clinton chose their respective running mates more than two months ago. But both Republican Mike Pence and Democrat Tim Kaine remain unknown to large a number Hispanic voters. Four out of 10 in Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada still do not know who Pence is, or have not formed an opinion about him; and the same goes for five out of 10 in Florida. Kaine has very similar percentages. The survey was conducted before the two vice presidential candidates held their first and only televised debate at Longwood University in Farmville, Virginia, on Tuesday, October 4.


Would Hillary Clinton achieve immigration reform?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

Yes

45%

50%

57%

54%

No

43%

36%

31%

36%

Doesn’t know

12%

14%

12%

10%

More Hispanics than not believe that Clinton would achieve immigration reform if she were elected president.

Would Hillary Clinton achieve immigration reform?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

Yes

45%

50%

57%

54%

No

43%

36%

31%

36%

Doesn’t know

12%

14%

12%

10%

More Hispanics than not believe that Clinton would achieve immigration reform if she were elected president.

Would Hillary Clinton achieve immigration reform?

FL

AZ

CO

NV

More Hispanics than not believe that Clinton would achieve immigration reform if she were elected president.

Yes

45%

50%

57%

54%

No

43%

36%

31%

36%

Doesn’t know

12%

10%

12%

14%

As for the issues that will mostly motivate Hispanics to vote in the elections on November 8, the new bipartisan survey does not show large variations from the previous one. Jobs and the economy continue to be the great motivator, followed in second place by immigration. Terrorism also appears as an important stimulus among respondents in Florida and Colorado.

The bipartisan exclusive Univision News survey consulted 1,600 Hispanic registered voters, 400 of them in each of the four swing states, between September 26 and October 4 this year. And it has a +/- 4.9% margin of error.

RELACIONADOS:PoliticsUnited StatesGráficos NoticiasHillary ClintonDonald Trump
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