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Politics

Poll: Hispanics not behind Rubio in Florida battle, turn to Murphy

Clinton leading Trump in Arizona, Nevada y Florida, giving oxygen for Democratic Senate candidates, according to an exclusive poll for Univision by Bendixen & Amandi International and The Tarrance Group.
3 Nov 2016 – 3:36 PM EDT


If the election were today, whom would you vote for, for president?

FLORIDA

Clinton

60%

58%

53%

30%

29%

28%

Trump

SEP

OCT

NOV

ARIZONA

Clinton

67%

68%

66%

Trump

18%

18%

18%

SEP

OCT

NOV

NEVADA

72%

Clinton

65%

65%

Trump

19%

20%

19%

SEP

OCT

NOV

In the crucial swing states of Arizona and Nevada, Clinton would garner the Hispanic vote, beating Trump by an overwhelming margin. In Florida the margin is two-to-one.

If the election were today, whom would you vote for, for president?

FLORIDA

Clinton

60%

58%

53%

30%

29%

28%

Trump

SEP

OCT

NOV

ARIZONA

Clinton

67%

68%

66%

Trump

18%

18%

18%

SEP

OCT

NOV

NEVADA

72%

Clinton

65%

65%

Trump

19%

20%

19%

SEP

OCT

NOV

In the crucial swing states of Arizona and Nevada, Clinton would garner the Hispanic vote, beating Trump by an overwhelming margin. In Florida the margin is two-to-one.

If the election were today, whom would you vote for, for president?

FLORIDA

ARIZONA

Clinton

Clinton

67%

60%

68%

66%

58%

53%

30%

29%

28%

Trump

Trump

18%

18%

18%

SEP

OCT

NOV

SEP

OCT

NOV

NEVADA

In the crucial swing states of Arizona and Nevada, Clinton would garner the Hispanic vote, beating Trump by an overwhelming margin. In Florida the margin is two-to-one.

72%

Clinton

65%

65%

Trump

19%

20%

19%

SEP

OCT

NOV

The race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump is red-hot in a dozen tightly contested states. And in at least two of them, Nevada and Arizona, Clinton is set to win the Hispanic vote by an overwhelming majority while she'll likely win it in Florida by a two-to-one margin, according to an exclusive new poll by Univision Noticias. The poll gives Clinton a resounding 72 percent of the Latino vote in Nevada, against 19 percent for Trump, and a 67-18 percent edge in Arizona. It also indicates the Democratic candidate would receive 60 percent of the Hispanic vote in Florida while the Republican would receive 30 percent. Both candidates are making frantic last-minute efforts to capture the Florida votes.


If the election were today, who would be your choice for the Senate?

FLORIDA

50%

44%

Patrick

Murphy

Marco

Rubio

ARIZONA

56%

36%

Ann

Kirkpatrick

John

McCain

NEVADA

67%

20%

Catherine

Cortez Masto

Joe

Heck

Democratic candidates to the Senate in these three swing states are winning more Hispanic votes than their Republican rivals, including two nationally-known figures: John McCain y Marco Rubio.

If the election were today, who would be your choice for the Senate?

FLORIDA

50%

44%

Patrick

Murphy

Marco

Rubio

ARIZONA

56%

36%

Ann

Kirkpatrick

John

McCain

NEVADA

67%

20%

Catherine

Cortez Masto

Joe

Heck

Democratic candidates to the Senate in these three swing states are winning more Hispanic votes than their Republican rivals, including two nationally-known figures: John McCain y Marco Rubio.

If the election were today, who would be your choice for the Senate?

FLORIDA

ARIZONA

56%

50%

44%

36%

Patrick

Murphy

Marco

Rubio

Ann

Kirkpatrick

John

McCain

NEVADA

67%

Democratic candidates to the Senate in these three swing states are winning more Hispanic votes than their Republican rivals, including two nationally-known figures: John McCain y Marco Rubio.

20%

Catherine

Cortez Masto

Joe

Heck

Clinton's good standing with Hispanic voters also is favoring the three Democratic candidates to the Senate in the crucial states. The Univision Noticias poll shows the three are winning the Hispanic vote over their Republican opponents, including incumbents John McCain and Marco Rubio. If the elections were held today, Ann Kirkpatrick would win 56 percent of the Hispanic vote in Arizona and McCain would win 36 percent. Catherine Cortez Masto, hoping to become the first Hispanic woman in the senate, would win 67 percent of the Hispanic vote in Nevada and John Heck would win 20 percent. Both are running for the seat vacated by Harry Reid, a Democrat. In Florida, Patrick Murphy would win 50 percent of the Hispanic vote while Rubio, a Cuban American Republican, would win 44 percent.


If the elections in your district were today, would you support the Democratic candidate, the Republican, or some other candidate?

FL

AZ

NV

57%

68%

67%

The Democrat

32%

20%

20%

The Republican

4%

4%

3%

Another

7%

8%

10%

Don’t know

In elections for the United States House of Representatives, Hispanics in the three swing states will mostly vote for Democratic candidates.

If the elections in your district were today, would you support the Democratic candidate, the Republican, or some other candidate?

FL

AZ

NV

57%

68%

67%

The Democrat

32%

20%

20%

The Republican

4%

4%

3%

Another

7%

8%

10%

Don’t know

In elections for the United States House of Representatives, Hispanics in the three swing states will mostly vote for Democratic candidates.

If the elections in your district were today, would you support the Democratic candidate, the Republican, or some other candidate?

FL

AZ

NV

In elections for the United States House of Representatives, Hispanics in the three swing states will mostly vote for Democratic candidates.

57%

68%

67%

The Democrat

32%

20%

20%

The Republican

3%

4%

4%

Another

7%

8%

10%

Don’t know

In the races for the House of Representatives, a majority of the Hispanic voters in the three swing states also indicated that they will vote for Democratic candidates. That's what 57 percent said in Florida, 68 percent said in Arizona and 67 percent said in Nevada.


Which candidate is better qualified to be president?

FL

AZ

NV

65%

66%

70%

Clinton

24%

11%

12%

Trump

4%

9%

8%

Johnson

1%

2%

1%

Stein

6%

7%

5%

Don’t know

Hispanic voters in the three swing states consider that Clinton is better qualified than Trump to be president.

Which candidate is better qualified to be president?

FL

AZ

NV

65%

66%

70%

Clinton

24%

11%

12%

Trump

4%

9%

8%

Johnson

1%

2%

1%

Stein

6%

7%

5%

Don’t know

Hispanic voters in the three swing states consider that Clinton is better qualified than Trump to be president.

Which candidate is better qualified to be president?

FL

AZ

NV

Hispanic voters in the three swing states consider that Clinton is better qualified than Trump to be president.

65%

66%

70%

Clinton

24%

11%

12%

Trump

4%

9%

8%

Johnson

1%

2%

1%

Stein

6%

7%

5%

Don’t know

Hispanic voters in the three swing states say Clinton has a better temperament and personality and is better prepared to be president. That's the opinion of 65 percent in Florida, 66 percent in Arizona and 70 percent in Nevada. In that category, Trump gets an anemic 11 percent and 12 percent in Arizona and Nevada, respectively, and a slightly better 24 percent in Florida.


Which candidate for president has more actively tried to win Hispanic votes?

FL

AZ

NV

73%

81%

83%

Clinton

18%

10%

10%

Trump

1%

2%

1%

Johnson

1%

1%

1%

Stein

7%

6%

5%

Don’t know

Hispanic voters recognize, by a broad margin, that Clinton has more actively cultivated the Latin vote during this campaign.

Which candidate for president has more actively tried to win Hispanic votes?

FL

AZ

NV

73%

81%

83%

Clinton

18%

10%

10%

Trump

1%

2%

1%

Johnson

1%

1%

1%

Stein

7%

6%

5%

Don’t know

Hispanic voters recognize, by a broad margin, that Clinton has more actively cultivated the Latin vote during this campaign.

Which candidate for president has more actively tried to win Hispanic votes?

FL

AZ

NV

Hispanic voters recognize, by a broad margin, that Clinton has more actively cultivated the Latin vote during this campaign.

73%

81%

83%

Clinton

18%

10%

10%

Trump

1%

2%

1%

Johnson

1%

1%

1%

Stein

7%

6%

5%

Don’t know

One factor that contributed to Clinton's better image among Hispanics was her constant courting of their votes during the current campaign. Asked which of the two candidates had been most actively tried to win their votes, the overwhelming majority of respondents in all three states pointed to the Democrat.


Will the presidential election be impartial and accurate, or will it be rigged in favor of one of the candidates?

FL

AZ

NV

Impartial and accurate

68%

64%

66%

Rigged for one candidate

23%

24%

23%

Don’t know

9%

12%

11%

Disagreeing with the claims of Donald Trump, Hispanic voters in these crucial states believe that the elections will be impartial and accurate.

Will the presidential election be impartial and accurate, or will it be rigged in favor of one of the candidates?

FL

AZ

NV

Impartial and accurate

68%

64%

66%

Rigged for one candidate

23%

24%

23%

Don’t know

9%

12%

11%

Disagreeing with the claims of Donald Trump, Hispanic voters in these crucial states believe that the elections will be impartial and accurate.

Will the presidential election be impartial and accurate, or will it be rigged in favor of one of the candidates?

FL

AZ

NV

Disagreeing with the claims of Donald Trump, Hispanic voters in these crucial states believe that the elections will be impartial and accurate.

Impartial and accurate

68%

64%

66%

Rigged for one candidate

23%

24%

23%

Don’t know

9%

12%

11%

In contrast to Trump's repeated complaints, the majority of the Hispanic voters surveyed in the three states also said they do not believe that the balloting next week will be “rigged.” Asked if the balloting will be impartial and honest, 68 percent in Florida, 64 percent in Arizona and 66 percent in Nevada said YES.


Are you in favor of or against the amendment regulating the use of marihuana in Arizona?

In favor

Against

48%

48%

Don’t know

4%

In Arizona, Hispanics are divided as to whether the use of marihuana should be authorized in that state.

Are you in favor or against the amendment regulating the use of marihuana in Nevada?

In favor

Against

55%

40%

Don’t know

5%

By contrast, a clear majority will vote in favor of its regulated use in Nevada.

Are you in favor or against the medicinal use of marihuana in Florida?

In favor

Against

66%

30%

Don’t know

4%

And almost seven out of every 10 will vote in favor of its medicinal use in Florida.

Are you in favor of or against the amendment regulating the use of marihuana in Arizona?

In favor

Against

48%

48%

Don’t know

4%

In Arizona, Hispanics are divided as to whether the use of marihuana should be authorized in that state.

Are you in favor or against the amendment regulating the use of marihuana in Nevada?

In favor

Against

55%

40%

Don’t know

5%

By contrast, a clear majority will vote in favor of its regulated use in Nevada.

Are you in favor or against the medicinal use of marihuana in Florida?

In favor

Against

66%

30%

Don’t know

4%

And almost seven out of every 10 will vote in favor of its medicinal use in Florida.

Are you in favor of or against the amendment regulating the use of marihuana in Arizona?

In Arizona, Hispanics are divided as to whether the use of marihuana should be authorized in that state.

In favor

Against

48%

48%

Don’t know

4%

Are you in favor or against the amendment regulating the use of marihuana in Nevada?

By contrast, a clear majority will vote in favor of its regulated use in Nevada.

In favor

Against

55%

40%

Don’t know

5%

Are you in favor or against the medicinal use of marihuana in Florida?

And almost seven out of every 10 will vote in favor of its medicinal use in Florida.

In favor

Against

66%

30%

Don’t know

4%

The poll also surveyed Hispanic voters in the three states on ballot proposals to legalize the recreational or medicinal use of marijuana. Voters in Arizona were evenly split, 48-48, on their marijuana proposal, with 4 percent undecided. Nevada voters favored a proposal there 55-40 percent, with 5 percent undecided. And in Florida, an overwhelming 66 percent of Hispanic voters favored approving the medicinal use of marijuana. Only 30 percent opposed the measure and 4 percent remain undecided.


How likely is it that a Hispanic person will be elected President of the US in the next 20 years?

FL

AZ

NV

Likely

85%

83%

84%

Unlikely

10%

13%

11%

Don’t know

5%

4%

5%

Hispanic voters in these key states feel highly optimistic that a Hispanic person will be elected president in the next 20 years.

How likely is it that a Hispanic person will be elected President of the US in the next 20 years?

FL

AZ

NV

Likely

85%

83%

84%

Unlikely

10%

13%

11%

Don’t know

5%

4%

5%

Hispanic voters in these key states feel highly optimistic that a Hispanic person will be elected president in the next 20 years.

How likely is it that a Hispanic person will be elected President of the US in the next 20 years?

FL

AZ

NV

Hispanic voters in these key states feel highly optimistic that a Hispanic person will be elected president in the next 20 years.

Likely

85%

83%

84%

Unlikely

10%

13%

11%

Don’t know

5%

4%

5%

The United States elected its first African American president in 2008, and now Clinton is hoping to become the first woman president. So it's not hard to understand why many Hispanic voters in Florida, Arizona and Nevada are optimistic that the first Hispanic president will be elected in the next 20 years. That was the hope of 85 percent of the Hispanics in Florida, 84 percent in Nevada and 83 percent in Arizona.

The exclusive survey was carried out by the Democratic polling firm Bendixen & Amandi and the Republican polling firm The Tarrance Group for Univision Noticias and the Washington Post between Oct. 26 and 30. They polled 800 registered Hispanic voters in Florida, 600 in Arizona and another 600 in Nevada. The margin of error was 3.5 percent for the Florida results and 4 percent for the results in the two other states.


RELACIONADOS:PoliticsUnited StatesGráficos NoticiasHillary ClintonDonald Trump
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