A new N+ Univision News/YouGov survey points to an unsettled, competitive political landscape in Texas heading into the 2026 midterm elections. While statewide contests for governor, U.S. Senate, and the generic congressional ballot remain dead heats, the poll’s Latino oversample reveals friction inside the coalition that helped power Donald Trump’s historic gains two years ago. Lee la encuesta en español aquí.
This Is What Texas Voters Think Looking Ahead to 2026
A new N+ Univision/YouGov poll finds one-third of Latino Trump voters reporting doubts or regret, keeping statewide races within razor-thin margins.
Por:
Sergio García-Ríos
Though Hispanic voters continue to give Democratic contenders an overall edge, the deeper story is a notable wave of second thoughts: roughly one in three Latino Trump voters now expresses doubt or outright regret over their 2024 choice, driven by administration actions, cost-of-living fatigue, and growing anxieties over racial profiling.
Close Statewide Contests and a Decisive Gender Gap
These shifting currents are poised to decide an already razor-thin gubernatorial contest. Statewide, Democrat Gina Hinojosa and Republican incumbent Greg Abbott are deadlocked at 47% each. Abbott’s challenge lies partly in a 12-point deficit among Latino voters, who back Hinojosa 54% to 42%. Yet that Hispanic advantage is held together almost entirely by Latina women, who favor Hinojosa by an 18-point margin (57% to 39%). In contrast, Latino men remain locked in a near-even split (49% Hinojosa to 47% Abbott), underscoring that even marginal shifts among Hispanic men could tip the balance statewide.
That dynamic carries over into the federal ticket. In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton statewide, 48% to 43%, fueled by a wider 56% to 37% margin among Hispanic voters. Similarly, on the generic U.S. House ballot, Democrats hold a slight two-point edge statewide (48% to 46%), but expand that lead to 13 points (54% to 41%) within the Latino electorate.
Second Thoughts Inside the 2024 Trump Coalition
Crucially, these numbers do not reflect an automatic snap-back to the historic, lopsided Democratic majorities of past decades. Republicans have preserved some foothold. Instead, the data captures a fracturing among Hispanics who crossed over to back Trump in 2024. While 64% of Latino Trump voters report feeling good about their vote and would repeat it, the remaining third shows cracks: 14% harbor some doubts, 7% report serious doubts that could alter their vote, and 12% voice outright regret. Roughly one-third of Latino Trump voters express some level of doubt, uncertainty, or regret. By comparison, statewide Trump voters show greater durability, with 73% reaffirming their vote and only 6% expressing regret.
Trump himself remains a polarizing and net-negative figure in Texas. Statewide, 42% of voters view him favorably, while 52% view him unfavorably. Among Latino voters, his standing is weaker: 38% view him favorably, while 55% view him unfavorably. That broader image problem helps explain why the doubts among some 2024 Trump voters matter heading into the midterms.
Economic Pressures, Profiling Fears, and Local Battles
This reappraisal appears driven as much by executive conduct as by pocketbook anxiety. Among the subset of Latino voters reporting that their views have shifted since 2024, Trump’s actions in office rank as the top catalyst at 24%, slightly ahead of inflation and cost of living at 18% (mirroring the statewide trend of 25% and 18%, respectively).
Immigration enforcement is also generating headwinds that standard border-security messaging does not capture. Fully 44% of Texas Latino voters say they are now more concerned than in previous years about being stopped or detained by law enforcement based solely on their skin color or appearance. Notably, this worry cuts into conservative ranks as well: one in four Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024 reports heightened anxiety over racial profiling.
Beneath candidate and identity concerns, everyday affordability remains the common denominator across all voting blocs. More than half of all Texans (51%) and Latino respondents (53%) rank inflation as a paramount national problem, followed closely by jobs and the economy (47% statewide, 46% Latino). On home-state matters, cost of living and employment decisively lead the agenda, cited by 54% of respondents across both groups.
Corruption also emerges as a notable concern. It ranks among the top national issues for 38% of Texas voters and 30% of Latino voters, and it is similarly salient in state politics, cited by about one-third of both groups as a major Texas issue. That suggests voter frustration is not limited to prices or immigration, but extends to broader concerns about government accountability.
At the community level, the rapid expansion of data centers is emerging as a nonpartisan flashpoint. Roughly one-third of voters, 35% statewide and 33% among Latinos, view data centers as a major state concern. Local opposition is pronounced: 52% of statewide voters and 54% of Latino voters oppose data centers being constructed within their own communities.
The survey captures a Texas electorate in flux. While statewide races remain within the margin of error, Latino voters are navigating conflicting crosscurrents. The demographic remains far from monolithic: a dependable conservative base persists, Democrats retain durable leads with women, and an influential bloc of 2024 Trump voters is actively reevaluating its allegiances under the pressure of federal policy and community-level concerns.
N+ Univision poll
Methodology
Univision News commissioned YouGov to conduct a representative online survey of registered voters in Texas. Interviews were conducted from August 27 to September 4, 2026, among 1,000 Texas registered voters. The survey also includes an oversample of 564 Texas Latino registered voters. The margin of error is approximately +/- 3.6 percentage points for the statewide sample and +/- 5 percentage points for the Latino sample. The statewide sample was weighted by gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, state region, voter registration benchmarks, 2020 presidential vote, and approximate 2024 presidential vote. The Latino sample was weighted by gender, age, education, state region, voter registration benchmarks, 2020 presidential vote, and approximate 2024 presidential vote. The survey was overseen by Dr. Sergio García-Ríos, Director of Polling and Data for Univision News, with BluePoint Analytix and Shaw & Co. assisting in questionnaire development, analysis, and interpretation. YouGov administered the survey and collected the data.