Hispanic voters could tip the balance in some swing states

In what appears to be an irreversible trend, Hillary Clinton is winning the Hispanic vote nationwide by a wide margin over Donald Trump, according to the findings of an exclusive survey by Univision News. If the presidential election were today, Clinton would get 64 percent of the Hispanic vote and Trump only 18 percent.

The Democratic candidate has managed to maintain a comparable advantage over her Republican rival since July, according to the findings of the survey conducted by the Democratic pollster Bendixen & Amandi and by Republican pollster The Tarrance Group. However, the percentage of undecided Hispanic voters has almost doubled since then, from 6 percent to 11 percent, which may reflect the various controversies affecting the campaigns of the two main contenders. This number of undecided voters is too low to reverse the trends between Clinton and Trump. However, it may be significant in swing states that have many Hispanic votes such as Florida and Nevada. If leaners for Clinton and Trump were added to the equation, then the Democratic candidate’s advantage would increase slightly. She would have 67% of Hispanic voters’ support and Trump 19%. This would lower the percentage of Latino undecided voters to 7%.

The electoral preferences of Hispanics reflect their differing perceptions of the two candidates for the presidency. While 66 percent feel that Clinton has a better personality and character to serve as President, only 12 percent think the same of Trump.

Seven out of every 10 have formed a favorable opinion of the former Secretary of State, while nearly eight out of every 10 have an unfavorable opinion of the New York real estate magnate. Ample majorities of survey respondents believe that Clinton would do more to improve the lives of Hispanics in the United States; and that she would handle the economy, health care, and the threat of terrorism better.

Hispanic voters continue to consider Trump a racist; 73 percent said so to the surveyors while 19 percent said the opposite.

For this survey, complaints about sexual misconduct by a dozen women have reaffirmed the negative perception of Trump among a sizable sector of voters. When asked about Trump’s vulgar comments about women, 71 percent said his words show what he really thinks about them and how he treats them. Only 20 percent of interviewees accepted the candidate’s explanation that his vulgar, insulting comments about women, which were made public, last month, were only “locker-room talk."

By contrast, Hispanic voters are much more divided regarding Clinton’s character and behavior. Some 44 percent feel that Clinton is a liar whereas 36 percent believe the opposite; and 20 percent have not formed any opinion.

Similarly, 41 percent consider that Clinton has not always told the truth about her emails, while 37 percent believe that she has told the truth about the controversy that has dogged the former Secretary of State throughout the entire presidential race.

Trump and some of his campaign representatives have complained that the electoral process is rigged against the Republican candidate. In some political events Trump has even spoken of “fraud," although he has not presented any concrete evidence. The exclusive Univision News survey suggests that most Hispanic voters trust that the elections will be fair and accurate. That is the opinion of 63 percent of respondents, while 22 percent believe that the process is rigged in favor of one of the candidates.

When asked whether it will be important for the losing candidate to acknowledge the winner, eight out 10 respondents answered "yes." This would indicate that Hispanic voters want the country to preserve its institutional stability.

Trump has promised that, if elected president, he will appoint a special prosecutor to re-investigate the way that Clinton handled her emails when she was heading the Department of State. When asked about Trump’s promise to appoint a special prosecutor, 57 percent opposed the idea and 33 percent favored it. And just like prior surveys by Univision News, an ample majority of Hispanic voters rejected Trump’s plan to build a wall along the United States’ border with Mexico. Of the persons surveyed 68 percent rejected the proposed wall and 26 percent supported it.

In other significant findings, the survey revealed that almost eight out of every 10 Hispanic voters say they are enthusiastic about voting in these presidential elections. One thing that has been a constant in Univision News campaign polls: the topic that most encourages people to get out and vote is jobs and the economy (28 percent), followed by immigration (15 percent), and education and health care (8 percent).

The exclusive bipartisan survey for Univision News polled 1,008 Hispanic voters in this country, in both English and Spanish, from October 26 to 30. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.