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Politics

Hispanic voters could tip the balance in some swing states

Hillary Clinton holds a wide lead over Donald Trump among Hispanic voters, according to an exclusive bipartisan voter survey by Bendixen & Amandi International and The Tarrance Group for Univision News . But the number of undecided Hispanic voters has doubled.
2 Nov 2016 – 5:27 PM EDT


If the presidential election were held today, whom would you vote for?

Clinton

67%

JUL

NOV

64%

Trump

19%

JUL

NOV

18%

Others

8%

JUL

NOV

7%

Undecided

6%

JUL

NOV

11%

If the election were today, Hillary Clinton would win the Hispanic vote, with more than triple the votes for Donald Trump. Clinton is holding onto the same voting margin she has had since July. However, the percentage of undecided voters has increased.

If the presidential election were held today, whom would you vote for?

Clinton

67%

JUL

NOV

64%

Trump

19%

JUL

NOV

18%

Others

8%

JUL

NOV

7%

Undecided

6%

JUL

NOV

11%

If the election were today, Hillary Clinton would win the Hispanic vote, with more than triple the votes for Donald Trump. Clinton is holding onto the same voting margin she has had since July. However, the percentage of undecided voters has increased.

If the presidential election were held today, whom would you vote for?

67%

64%

Others

Undecided

Clinton

Trump

19%

18%

11%

8%

7%

6%

JUL

NOV

JUL

NOV

JUL

NOV

JUL

NOV

If the election were today, Hillary Clinton would win the Hispanic vote, with more than triple the votes for Donald Trump. Clinton is holding onto the same voting margin she has had since July. However, the percentage of undecided voters has increased.

In what appears to be an irreversible trend, Hillary Clinton is winning the Hispanic vote nationwide by a wide margin over Donald Trump, according to the findings of an exclusive survey by Univision News. If the presidential election were today, Clinton would get 64 percent of the Hispanic vote and Trump only 18 percent.


Who do you think will win?

Clinton

75%

Trump

12%

Others

8%

Don’t Know

11%

More than seven out of every 10 Hispanic voters expect Clinton to win the election.

Who do you think will win?

Clinton

75%

Trump

12%

Others

8%

Don’t Know

11%

More than seven out of every 10 Hispanic voters expect Clinton to win the election.

Who do you think will win?

75%

Others

Don’t Know

Trump

Clinton

12%

?

11%

3%

More than seven out of every 10 Hispanic voters expect Clinton to win the election.

The Democratic candidate has managed to maintain a comparable advantage over her Republican rival since July, according to the findings of the survey conducted by the Democratic pollster Bendixen & Amandi and by Republican pollster The Tarrance Group. However, the percentage of undecided Hispanic voters has almost doubled since then, from 6 percent to 11 percent, which may reflect the various controversies affecting the campaigns of the two main contenders. This number of undecided voters is too low to reverse the trends between Clinton and Trump. However, it may be significant in swing states that have many Hispanic votes such as Florida and Nevada. If leaners for Clinton and Trump were added to the equation, then the Democratic candidate’s advantage would increase slightly. She would have 67% of Hispanic voters’ support and Trump 19%. This would lower the percentage of Latino undecided voters to 7%.


Who has a better personality and character to serve as President?

Hillary Clinton

66%

Donald Trump

14%

Don’t know

?

10%

A sizable majority of Hispanic voters feel that Clinton has a better personality and character than Trump.

Who has a better personality and character to serve as President?

Hillary Clinton

66%

Donald Trump

14%

Don’t know

?

10%

A sizable majority of Hispanic voters feel that Clinton has a better personality and character than Trump.

Who has a better personality and character to serve as President?

66%

A sizable majority of Hispanic voters feel that Clinton has a better personality and character than Trump.

14%

10%

?

Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump

Don’t know

The electoral preferences of Hispanics reflect their differing perceptions of the two candidates for the presidency. While 66 percent feel that Clinton has a better personality and character to serve as President, only 12 percent think the same of Trump.


What is your view about Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump?

HILLARY CLINTON

Favorable

69%

Don’t know

Unfavorable

3%

28%

DONALD TRUMP

Unfavorable

76%

Don’t know

Favorable

4%

20%

A large majority of Hispanic voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton, while an overwhelming percentage have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.

What is your view about Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump?

HILLARY CLINTON

Favorable

69%

Don’t know

Unfavorable

3%

28%

DONALD TRUMP

Unfavorable

76%

Don’t know

Favorable

4%

20%

A large majority of Hispanic voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton, while an overwhelming percentage have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.

What is your view about Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump?

HILLARY CLINTON

DONALD TRUMP

Favorable

Unfavorable

69%

76%

Don’t know

Unfavorable

Don’t know

Favorable

3%

28%

4%

20%

A large majority of Hispanic voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton, while an overwhelming percentage have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.

Seven out of every 10 have formed a favorable opinion of the former Secretary of State, while nearly eight out of every 10 have an unfavorable opinion of the New York real estate magnate. Ample majorities of survey respondents believe that Clinton would do more to improve the lives of Hispanics in the United States; and that she would handle the economy, health care, and the threat of terrorism better.


Is Donald Trump a racist?

Yes

73%

Don’t know

No

8%

19%

More than seven out of every 10 Hispanic voters consider Trump a racist.

Is Donald Trump a racist?

Yes

73%

Don’t know

No

19%

8%

More than seven out of every 10 Hispanic voters consider Trump a racist.

Is Donald Trump a racist?

Yes

73%

More than seven out of every 10 Hispanic voters consider Trump a racist.

Don’t know

No

8%

19%

Hispanic voters continue to consider Trump a racist; 73 percent said so to the surveyors while 19 percent said the opposite.


Trump’s comments about women are

What he really thinks about them

71%

Just locker-

room talk

Don’t know

8%

21%

Seven out of every 10 Hispanic voters feel that Trump’s comments about women are an indication of what he thinks about them and how he treats them.

Trump’s comments about women are

What he really thinks about them

71%

Just locker-

room talk

Don’t know

8%

21%

Seven out of every 10 Hispanic voters feel that Trump’s comments about women are an indication of what he thinks about them and how he treats them.

Trump’s comments about women are

What he really thinks about them

71%

Seven out of every 10 Hispanic voters feel that Trump’s comments about women are an indication of what he thinks about them and how he treats them.

Don’t know

Just locker-room talk

8%

21%

For this survey, complaints about sexual misconduct by a dozen women have reaffirmed the negative perception of Trump among a sizable sector of voters. When asked about Trump’s vulgar comments about women, 71 percent said his words show what he really thinks about them and how he treats them. Only 20 percent of interviewees accepted the candidate’s explanation that his vulgar, insulting comments about women, which were made public, last month, were only “locker-room talk."


Is Hillary Clinton untruthful?

Yes

44%

Don’t know

No

20%

36%

More Hispanic voters consider Clinton untruthful than those who do not.

Is Hillary Clinton untruthful?

Yes

44%

Don’t know

No

20%

36%

More Hispanic voters consider Clinton untruthful than those who do not.

Is Hillary Clinton untruthful?

Yes

44%

No

Don’t know

36%

20%

More Hispanic voters consider Clinton untruthful than those who do not.

By contrast, Hispanic voters are much more divided regarding Clinton’s character and behavior. Some 44 percent feel that Clinton is a liar whereas 36 percent believe the opposite; and 20 percent have not formed any opinion.


Has Clinton told the truth about how she managed her emails?

No

41%

Yes

Don’t know

37%

22%

More Hispanic voters think that Hillary Clinton has not told the truth about her handling of emails, than those who think otherwise.

Has Clinton told the truth about how she managed her emails?

No

41%

Don’t know

Yes

22%

37%

More Hispanic voters think that Hillary Clinton has not told the truth about her handling of emails, than those who think otherwise.

Has Clinton told the truth about how she managed her emails?

Yes

No

37%

41%

Don’t know

22%

More Hispanic voters think that Hillary Clinton has not told the truth about her handling of emails, than those who think otherwise.

Similarly, 41 percent consider that Clinton has not always told the truth about her emails, while 37 percent believe that she has told the truth about the controversy that has dogged the former Secretary of State throughout the entire presidential race.


Will the election be fair and accurate, or will it be rigged in favor of one of the candidates?

Fair and accurate

65%

Rigged

Don’t know

22%

13%

A clear majority of Hispanic voters believe that the election will be fair and accurate.

Will the election be fair and accurate, or will it be rigged in favor of one of the candidates?

Fair and accurate

65%

Don’t know

Rigged

13%

22%

A clear majority of Hispanic voters believe that the election will be fair and accurate.

Will the election be fair and accurate, or will it be rigged in favor of one of the candidates?

Rigged

Fair and accurate

22%

65%

Don’t know

13%

A clear majority of Hispanic voters believe that the election will be fair and accurate.

Trump and some of his campaign representatives have complained that the electoral process is rigged against the Republican candidate. In some political events Trump has even spoken of “fraud," although he has not presented any concrete evidence. The exclusive Univision News survey suggests that most Hispanic voters trust that the elections will be fair and accurate. That is the opinion of 63 percent of respondents, while 22 percent believe that the process is rigged in favor of one of the candidates.


How important will it be for the losing candidate to publicly acknowledge the winner?

Important

82%

Don’t know

Not important

6%

12%

A large majority also feels that it will be important for the losing candidate to publicly acknowledge the winner.

How important will it be for the losing candidate to publicly acknowledge the winner?

Important

82%

Don’t know

Not important

6%

12%

A large majority also feels that it will be important for the losing candidate to publicly acknowledge the winner.

How important will it be for the losing candidate to publicly acknowledge the winner?

Not important

Important

12%

82%

Don’t know

6%

A large majority also feels that it will be important for the losing candidate to publicly acknowledge the winner.

When asked whether it will be important for the losing candidate to acknowledge the winner, eight out 10 respondents answered "yes." This would indicate that Hispanic voters want the country to preserve its institutional stability.

Trump has promised that, if elected president, he will appoint a special prosecutor to re-investigate the way that Clinton handled her emails when she was heading the Department of State. When asked about Trump’s promise to appoint a special prosecutor, 57 percent opposed the idea and 33 percent favored it. And just like prior surveys by Univision News, an ample majority of Hispanic voters rejected Trump’s plan to build a wall along the United States’ border with Mexico. Of the persons surveyed 68 percent rejected the proposed wall and 26 percent supported it.

In other significant findings, the survey revealed that almost eight out of every 10 Hispanic voters say they are enthusiastic about voting in these presidential elections. One thing that has been a constant in Univision News campaign polls: the topic that most encourages people to get out and vote is jobs and the economy (28 percent), followed by immigration (15 percent), and education and health care (8 percent).

The exclusive bipartisan survey for Univision News polled 1,008 Hispanic voters in this country, in both English and Spanish, from October 26 to 30. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.

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