Final Forecast: Hispanic vote will carry Clinton to win Florida and enter White House

Hispanic voters will deliver election victory in Florida to Hillary Clinton, propelling her to be the first female U.S. president, according to a statistical forecast of Univision Noticias and Cifras y Conceptos based on Sunday data.

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Our analysis estimates Clinton will win this state with a difference of 2.2 percentage points over Donald Trump (48.58% vs. 46.38%). Without the Hispanic vote, Trump would win Florida by four and a half points (45.3% vs 49.8%).

Clinton has kept her lead over the Republican in Florida despite slipping in recent weeks. In September, our model gave her a victory margin in the key state of 3 percentage points (48.42% vs 45.39).

Clinton’s drop in support can be partially explained by an FBI decision the previous week that kept an email scandal in the spotlight. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) probed whether emails sent by her advisor, Huma Abedin, from one or more devices shared with her now-estranged husband Anthony Weiner, involved material considered classified or sensitive to U.S. national security.

The latest twist in saga came Sunday, when the FBI director sent Congress a letter stating the bureau found no new evidence in the emails to make it change its earlier conclusion that Clinton should not face criminal charges for the way she handled correspondence as secretary of state. This may favor her in the election’s final hours.

Another key variable in our forecast is early voting in Florida. Consistent with national surveys, the state’s early vote shows a small lead for Clinton. Our final forecast, published Monday, takes into account early voting.

Florida is battleground territory. It has the most electoral votes – 29 -- of any of the so-called swing states -- those where the likely result is unclear. If he loses Florida, Trump has almost no chance of reaching the 270 votes in the Electoral College needed to become president.

Univision’s model shows Trump has a 39% chance of winning Florida. By way of illustration, that is about the same possibility the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Carolina Panthers have to win an NFL game. Both teams’ winning percentage is 37.5%.

For the Republican to win Florida, a combination of favorable factors has to emerge where the Hispanic vote is less influential or there is a last-minute surge in support for Trump.

This can happen if:

1. Hispanic turnout is lower than expected. Our model predicts Hispanics will make up 18.5% of all voters. If that does not happen, things get difficult for Clinton. But the numbers seem to favor the Democrat. Her campaign estimates that Latino early voting in the state has increased 139% compared to 2012.
2. Fewer Hispanic voters cast their ballot for Clinton than expected. According to the model, Clinton will win 63% of the Hispanic vote and Trump 31%. But if Trump manages to receive 38% of the Hispanic vote, he will win the state.
3. Non-Hispanic voters (whites and blacks) show up to the polls in higher numbers than expected and favor Trump more than expected. We project Trump will beat Clinton by 4.5 points among non-Hispanics in Florida.

SWING STATES: Two technical ties

Univision Noticias’ forecast in the five swing states where Latinos have most electoral weight: Florida, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.
The results show a technical tie in Nevada and Arizona, which means the race is so close you cannot know with any certainty who will win the state. Data analysis of the Latino vote shows Clinton sweeps these states among this constituency (although there is no Latino vote data for New Mexico).

How we reached our conclusions

Univision Noticias’ forecast takes into account 19 historical variables dating back to 1996, including presidential election results, the Latino participation rate and the party of incumbent state governors. The forecast also analyzes the context for the 2016 elections, weighing variables such as the unemployment rate, inflation and Americans’ income as well as President Obama’s popularity. Finally, the forecast considers the political parties’ campaign strategy, including early voting programs.