Univision forecast: Latino vote will sink Trump in Florida

Donald Trump will lose the election in Florida - the swing state with the most electoral votes - because most Latinos won't vote for him, Univision News predicts.

As a result, it's virtually impossible for him to win the White House due to the electoral college system, according to a a Univision data analysis of the key five swing states expected to determine the outcome in November.

The forecast, based on a statistical analysis of the presidential race, found that Hillary Clinton will win 48.39% of the vote in Florida, versus 44.87% for Trump.

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THE ESSENTIAL STATE

Of all of the swing states, Florida has the largest number of electoral votes: 29. If he loses Florida, Donald Trump has no chance of attaining the 270 electoral votes needed to become president.

Trump's defeat in Florida will stem primarily from the Hispanic vote, since Latinos have a growing influence in the state and show a clear preference for Clinton. According to our forecast, 18% of Florida voters in November will be Hispanic. Of those, 6 out of 10 will support the Democratic candidate.

Republicans still haven't found a way to reach Florida’s Latino voters. In 2012, President Barack Obama won Florida with a boost from Hispanics, and won reelection. He needed 58% of the Latino vote to win the state, but he won even more: 60%.

HOW THE PREDICTION WAS MADE

The Univision News forecast takes into account 19 election variables since 1996, including presidential race results, Latino voter turnout and governors' political affiliation. It also considers the current election context, through variables like unemployment, President Obama's approval rating, inflation, income levels, and campaign and party strategy.

FIVE HISPANIC SWING STATES

The Univision News forecast focuses on five swing states where Latinos have the most influence: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada and New Mexico.

The forecast shows a slight advantage for Trump in Arizona, and in all other states Clinton is predicted to win. Univision predicts the Democratic candidate will sweep the Latino vote in these five swing states.

HOW LATINOS AFFECT THE FLORIDA VOTE

This tool allows users to see how the presidential election will be affected by Latino voter turnout in Florida. The forecast model estimates that if 682,066 Hispanics in Florida cast their ballots (26.3% of eligible Latino voters), Trump and Clinton would tie with 46.5% of the vote. Any other additional Hispanic votes would give Clinton the advantage.

For example, if half of eligible Hispanic voters in Florida cast their ballots, the Democratic candidate would win the state with 47.8% of the vote versus 45.4% for Trump.

Ronny Rojas and Luis Melgar contributed to this report.