Latinos in Southwest offer opportunity for Democrats

In a challenging political environment for Democrats, Latinos in the Southwest are a bright spot. They played a critical role in taking back Congress and winning the White House in 2020. With investment and cultivation, Latinos could make the difference in close elections up and down the ballot in 2022.

Over the last twenty years, the southwest has gone from a Republican stronghold to a critical part of Democrats' ability to win national elections. Recent polling from Future Majority in Arizona and Nevada shows solid Latino vote support for Democrats and that Republicans are underperforming their 2020 Latino support.

While Donald Trump outperformed his 2016 Latino vote performance last cycle, he did not come near the GOP high water mark. That distinction belongs to George W. Bush, who got 44% of the Latino vote in 2004. Bush won New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado, southwestern heavily Hispanic states that gave him 47 Electoral College votes.

By contrast, in 2020, Biden received 63% of the Latino vote, a 28-point margin of victory with Latino voters. More importantly, Biden's popularity with Latinos propelled him to victory in Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. As political strategist Simon Rosenberg notes, Latinos overall yielded Democrats a net margin of 4.6m votes. This vote total is impressive, given that Biden's overall margin of victory was only 7 million votes.

Despite their concerns over inflation and the economy, a recent Future Majority poll in Arizona and Nevada shows that Latinos favor Democratic candidates and policies. If any party is showing erosion with Latino voters in the southwest, it is Republicans. No Republican Senate or Gubernatorial candidate comes close to Trump's 35% or W. Bush's 44% percent margins with Latino voters.

For historical context, in Arizona in 2020, Senator Mark Kelly won the Latino vote by 30 points. Senator Kelly currently leads his highest-polling opponent by 36 points. In Nevada, in 2018, Senator Jacky Rosen won the Latino vote by 37 points; today, Senator Catherine Cortez Masto leads her opponent by 38 points. In Arizona in 2018, the Democratic candidate David Garcia won the Latino by 12 points, while the current Democratic nominee currently leads by 24 points. In Nevada, in 2018, Governor Steve Sisolak won the Latino vote by 37 points; today, he holds a 23-point lead. Governor Sisolak has work to do, but what this data shows is that he has room to grow with Latino voters.

While these polling numbers are promising for Democratic candidates in the southwest, Latinos also reject Republicans' extreme positions on policies critical to their community.

On reproductive rights, in Arizona and Nevada, respectively, 45% and 40% of respondents said they were more likely to vote for Democrats because of the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe vs. Wade, ending Federal protections for abortions. Republicans are also underwater with Latinos on the issue of safety. In Arizona and Nevada, 52% and 50%of respondents said Democrats would do a better job at keeping their families safe. Finally, a majority of Latinos in both Arizona and Nevada view Democrats as better able to create opportunities for you and your family to get ahead and live a better life.

These numbers make sense given that under President Joe Biden, Hispanic unemployment fell by 4.5 points in 2021 from 9.4% to 4.9%. This shift in unemployment is the largest calendar-year drop in history and has fallen further since to 4.3%. Hispanic employment is 618,000 jobs above pre-pandemic: Additionally, Hispanic women's unemployment is down to 3.8%, below pre-pandemic levels. Finally, under Democrats, the Hispanic Business formation was at the highest rate in more than a decade in 2021 and 23 percent faster than pre-pandemic levels.

While this is good news for Democrats, polling does not equal turnout. All this data is pointing to is an opportunity. Democrats must continue to fight for Latino voters; they must contrast their record of accomplishment with the extremism of the Republican party. Republicans have attacked our Capitol, have been instrumental in overturning Roe V. Wade, and refuse to act on gun violence that hurts our community.

What Democrats have done is popular and provides a clear contrast with the extremism of the Republican party. To meet that opportunity, Democrats must invest; they have to organize to reach this constituency. If they do, they can give themselves the edge on what are likely to be very close elections in the fall.

Kristian Ramos is a Hispanic media consultant with Autonomy Strategies.