Texas stays close as Latino voters reshape the 2026 map

A new N+ Univision/YouGov poll conducted October 13–21, 2026, among 1,000 registered Texas voters finds a closely divided electorate heading into the midterm elections. The statewide sample has an approximate margin of error of ±3.8 percentage points. The survey also includes a total sample of 980 registered Latino voters, with an approximate margin of error of ±3.7 points.

Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa, 48% to 46%, while Republicans hold a 48% to 45% advantage on the generic U.S. House ballot. In the U.S. Senate contest, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 50% to 45%. Taken together with the poll’s margin of error, the results point to three closely contested statewide races.

The Senate race stands out. Abbott and the generic Republican House candidate roughly match the state’s closely divided partisan landscape, while Talarico runs several points ahead of the Democratic House baseline. The point is not the five-point margin on its own, but that Talarico is performing better than Democrats elsewhere on the ballot.

Under the topline, Texas voters are moving differently

The October poll also looks different when compared with the earlier N+ Univision/YouGov Texas survey conducted Aug. 27–Sept. 4. The statewide numbers changed only modestly, but the changes underneath them were much less uniform across age and gender, and often looked different among Latino voters.

The governor’s race is a good example. Among voters ages 18 to 34, the Democratic margin barely changed between the two surveys, both statewide and among Latinos. The bigger change came among voters ages 35 to 49: Hinojosa’s statewide advantage in that group narrowed from 14 points in September to 2 points in October. Among Latino voters of the same age, her advantage also narrowed, though less sharply, from 13 points to 7.

Gender tells a somewhat different story. Latino men barely moved: Hinojosa was at 49% to Abbott’s 47% in both surveys. Statewide, however, Abbott’s advantage among men grew from six points in September to 11 points in October.

The Senate pattern is different. Talarico’s advantage grew among younger voters in both electorates, while voters 65 and older moved in the opposite direction. Among Latino voters under 35, Talarico’s margin grew from 27 points to 34. Among Latino voters 65 and older, his 13-point September advantage narrowed to just 3 points in October. Statewide, Paxton’s advantage among voters 65 and older grew from 14 to 24 points.

These are not the same voters interviewed twice, and the subgroup samples are smaller than the toplines, so small differences should not be overread. But taken together, the two surveys show why a relatively stable statewide topline can still mask meaningful changes across groups.

The Latino vote reshapes Texas’s electoral picture

Hinojosa leads Abbott 52% to 43% among Latino voters. Talarico’s advantage over Paxton expands to 55% to 37%, while Democrats lead the generic House ballot 52% to 41%.

Those margins help explain why the statewide picture can look so different inside one of Texas’s largest voting blocs.

But the Latino electorate is far from uniform.

North Texas stands out. Among Latino voters there, Abbott leads Hinojosa by roughly 10 points and Republicans lead the House ballot by about 11, while the Senate race is nearly even. In Central Texas, Democrats hold advantages of roughly 19 to 21 points across the three contests. Democratic margins are also large in West and South Texas, with Talarico posting his widest regional advantage among South Texas Latinos.

The statewide Latino margin masks very different regional political environments.

Second thoughts about 2024 are showing up in 2026 choices

The poll also offers a clearer look at how durable Trump’s 2024 Latino coalition is.

Among Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024, 65% say they feel good about that vote and would make the same choice again. Another 13% report some doubts, 10% have serious doubts, and 8% regret their vote.

The sharper divide appears when those feelings are matched against current 2026 vote choices.

Among Latino Trump voters who say they would make the same presidential choice again, just about 5% currently support Hinojosa and 9% support Talarico. Among those who now express some doubts, serious doubts, or regret, support rises to roughly 34% for Hinojosa and 44% for Talarico.

That does not establish that dissatisfaction with Trump drove those voters toward Democrats. But it does show that second thoughts about the 2024 vote are strongly associated with current willingness to cross party lines in 2026.

In Texas, much of that divide appears closely tied to immigration enforcement.

Immigration enforcement marks a divide inside Trump’s Latino coalition

Latino voters overall do not fit neatly into a choice between border security and immigration reform.

Sixty-two percent say the country should work simultaneously on border security and a pathway to citizenship for long-term undocumented immigrants who can pass a background check. Just 29% say border security should be fully addressed before immigration reform.

At the same time, 56% of Latino voters say immigration enforcement has gone too far. That includes 29% who say the border needed securing but enforcement has gone too far, and another 27% who believe the situation at the border was overstated and enforcement has gone too far.

The consequences also feel personal for a substantial share of the electorate. Forty-three percent of Latino voters say they are very or somewhat worried that they, a family member or someone close to them could be directly affected by current immigration enforcement. Fifty-seven percent report only a little or no confidence at all in Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and 38% say they are more worried than in recent years that law enforcement could stop or detain them because of their skin color or appearance.

Those concerns are especially pronounced among Latino Trump voters who now back Talarico.

Among Latino 2024 Trump voters currently supporting Talarico, roughly seven in ten report little or no confidence in ICE, compared with fewer than two in ten of those supporting Paxton. About 58% of the Talarico group say immigration enforcement has gone too far, compared with about 21% among Paxton supporters.

The same pattern appears in more personal measures. Nearly half of Latino Trump voters now supporting Talarico worry that they or someone close to them could be directly affected by enforcement, compared with roughly one-quarter of those supporting Paxton. They are also much more likely to report heightened concern about being stopped because of their appearance.

These subgroup estimates come from smaller samples and should be interpreted as directional rather than as precise population estimates. Still, the consistency of the pattern across several measures points to an important distinction: some of the erosion inside Trump’s Latino coalition appears connected not simply to immigration as an abstract political issue, but to attitudes toward how immigration enforcement is being carried out.

Immigration is not the only source of dissatisfaction

Economic pressure remains central.

Forty-two percent of Latino voters say their household finances are worse than they were a year ago, compared with 23% who say they are better. Groceries are the most commonly cited source of household pressure, selected by 63%, followed by gasoline and transportation at 50% and utilities at 37%.

That economic dissatisfaction also appears among the Latino Trump voters crossing over in the Senate race. Nearly half of those now supporting Talarico say their household finances have worsened over the past year, compared with roughly one-quarter of those supporting Paxton.

The picture is not immigration instead of the economy. For some voters who backed Trump two years ago, concerns about enforcement and affordability appear to overlap.

Democrats hold an issue-trust advantage—with one major exception

The broader issue environment also tilts toward Democrats among Latino voters.

Across 12 issues tested in the survey, Democrats hold a net trust advantage on 11. Their largest advantage comes on protecting immigrant rights, where they lead Republicans 51% to 27%. They also hold sizable advantages on keeping the United States out of foreign wars, the cost of living and inflation, gas prices, prescription drug costs and doing what is best for “people like me.”

There is one important exception: border security.

On that issue, Republicans hold a narrow 40% to 38% advantage among Latino voters.

That split captures the cross-pressure visible elsewhere in the poll. Latino voters can prefer Republicans on border security while favoring Democrats on immigrant rights, household economic concerns and a broader set of policy questions. Their views do not fit neatly into a simple choice between being “for” or “against” immigration enforcement.

Data centers reveal another Texas divide

Data centers offer another distinctly Texas divide.

Nearly half of Latino voters—48%—oppose data centers being built in their own communities, compared with 25% who support them.

Opposition tends to be higher where Latino voters say their communities have little or no say over where data centers are built.

Central Texas stands out: roughly seven in ten Latino voters there report little or no influence over data-center siting, and about two-thirds oppose local construction. Both measures are substantially lower in North Texas.

The relationship is descriptive, but it suggests that local voice may matter alongside attitudes toward growth and technology.

Texas is close, but the coalitions underneath look different

The two polls show a Texas electorate that remains highly competitive but isn't moving in one direction.

Republicans still hold narrow statewide advantages in the governor’s race and on the House ballot, while Talarico runs ahead of that Republican-leaning baseline in the Senate contest. Latino voters remain substantially more Democratic across all three races, but margins vary sharply by demographic group and region.

The September-to-October comparison reinforces that point. Some groups barely changed, including young Latino voters and Latino men in the governor’s race, while others moved more noticeably. In the Senate contest, younger voters became more Democratic as older voters moved more Republican.

A bigger question hangs over the Latino voters who helped Trump improve his 2024 performance: how durable is that support?

Most Latino Trump voters remain with him. But those now expressing doubts or regret are far more likely to support Democratic candidates in 2026, and the voters crossing over are also markedly more skeptical of immigration enforcement and ICE.

Immigration enforcement does not explain those choices on its own; economic dissatisfaction matters too. But the durability of Trump’s Latino gains may depend not only on support for border security, but on how voters judge the policies carried out in its name.

Download the full results for Texas voters here.
Download the full results for Latino voters in Texas here.

About the Poll:

The N+ Univision poll interviewed 1,000 registered voters in Texas online through YouGov from Oct. 13 to Oct. 21, 2026, and included a Latino oversample yielding a total sample of 980 Latino registered voters. YouGov selected respondents to be representative of registered voters in Texas and, for the oversample, of registered Latino voters in Texas. The statewide sample was weighted by gender, age, race and ethnicity, education, state region, 2020 presidential vote, 2022 general election turnout and approximate 2024 presidential vote, based on voter registration lists, the U.S. Census American Community Survey, the U.S. Census Current Population Survey and available election results. Statewide sample weights ranged from 0.10 to 6.06, with a mean of 1 and a standard deviation of 0.72. The Latino sample was weighted by gender, age, education, state region, 2020 presidential vote and approximate 2024 presidential vote, using the same benchmarks. Latino sample weights ranged from 0.15 to 6.00, with a mean of 1 and a standard deviation of 0.64. The margin of error at the 95% confidence level is approximately +/- 3.8 percentage points for the statewide sample and +/- 3.7 percentage points for the Latino sample. The margin of sampling error may be higher for subgroups and does not reflect nonsampling errors, including potential selection bias in panel participation or survey response. Dr. Sergio García-Ríos, Director of Polling and Data at N+ Univision, oversaw the survey, with BluePoint Analytix assisting with questionnaire review, analysis, and interpretation. YouGov administered the survey and collected the data.