Politics

Poll: Latino voters over 50 in California, Florida and Arizona are enthusiastic and reject Trump

Univision News and the AARP took the pulse of a key sector of the Hispanic electorate in three states.
25 Sep 2018 – 12:23 PM EDT


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Hispanic voters aged 50 and over from California, Florida and Arizona are highly motivated to vote in November, according to a new poll by Univision News and AARP taken by Bendixen & Amandi International. Just 48 days before the midterm elections, virtually all the voters interviewed said they plan to vote on November 6.

How excited would you say you are about voting in the November elections?
CALIFORNIA FLORIDA ARIZONA

Two major factors that traditionally motivate Latinos to vote are economy and jobs, on the one hand, and immigration on the other. But this time there is a significant new motivating factor: President Donald Trump.

What is the most important issue personally for you and which will be the biggest factor in deciding your vote in November?
CALIFORNIA FLORIDA ARIZONA

The Trump factor could work differently in the states examined. Approximately two-thirds of the voters interviewed in Arizona and California expressed an unfavorable opinion of Trump. In contrast, in Florida, the opinions of those interviewed are more evenly divided.

What do you think about Donald Trump? Donald Trump | President of the USA
CALIFORNIA FLORIDA ARIZONA

The same partisan division arises when those polled were asked about what direction the country is headed.

Do you think things in this country are going in the right direction or do you think they are on the wrong track?
CALIFORNIA FLORIDA ARIZONA

The ideological tendencies of Hispanic voters are also evident in their preferences for candidates in the three states.

If the elections for governor next November took place today, who would you vote for?
CALIFORNIA. Candidate for Governor
CALIFORNIA. Candidate for Senator
FLORIDA. Candidate for Governor
FLORIDA. Candidate for Senator
ARIZONA. Candidate for Governor
ARIZONA. Candidate for Senator
What is your opinion of these candidates?
*Favorable includes those who answered very favorably and somewhat favorably. Unfavorable includes those who answered somewhat unfavorable and very unfavorable.

In what constitutes a symptom of the political polarization in the country, a third of the respondents in the three states said that their main general concern is how divided Americans are.

Do you think things in this country are going in the right direction or do you think they are on the wrong track?
CALIFORNIA FLORIDA ARIZONA

A large majority also expressed concern that the Russian government will try to interfere in the midterm elections this year the same way it interfered in the 2016 general elections.

How concerned are you that the Russian government may try to interfere in the 2018 US elections?
CALIFORNIA FLORIDA ARIZONA

The Univision News poll also asked voters about their perceptions of the Democratic and Republican parties, the issues they consider most significant in the midterm elections and their prospects for eventual retirement. Download the complete surveys of California, Florida and Arizona here. California, Florida y Arizona.

Which of the two biggest parties do you trust will do a better job to improve the lives of Hispanics living in the US?
CALIFORNIA FLORIDA ARIZONA
METHODOLOGY: A survey of AARP and Univision among registered Hispanic voters, over 50 years of age, in Arizona, California and Florida, with the voter intention (likely voters) in the general elections of November 2018. Data collected by telephone (through the CATI method) between August 29 and September 9, 2018, in English and Spanish, according to sampling conducted by SDR Consulting, Inc./L2 for Arizona and Florida, and by SDR Consulting, Inc./Political Data Inc for California. The samples were obtained using the "nth" selection method, to ensure that the sample was representative. During the fieldwork it was verified that all those selected were registered Hispanic voters (through voter registration sample files), over the age of 50 and with the intention of voting in the elections of November 2018. There were 500 interviews in each state, for a total of 1,500 interviews. The margin of error for each state was +/- 4.4%, with a confidence level of 95%. The results were not weighted.
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