The presidential campaign in Mexico begins its final phase today (Friday) as it approaches election day July 1. In the next 100 days the fight will be between all the candidates against Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Andrés Manuel against himself.
100 days: AMLO and the battle for Mexico's presidency
López Obrador is the target of attacks by the rest of the candidates. But AMLO's worst enemy is himself. Despite his effort to control himself, he has a tendency of getting sidetracked by trivial issues that end up exposing his negative side: apparent arrogance, rigidity and messianism.
Mexican presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador, leader of the Morena party.
Imagen Yuri Cortez/AFP/Getty Images
López Obrador of the leftist coalition, Juntos Haremos Historia, has spent months as a front-runner with more than 30% of voters’ preferences. Now at his third time at bat, López Obrador has managed to seize the desire for change that a good part of the Mexican electorate pines for and has corrected errors that kept him from winning the elections of 2006 and 2012.
Today his tone is measured and he spends more time making appeals for peace and love than pushing an agenda of concrete proposals on the future of Mexico. His fight against "the mafia in power" - as he designates government, institutions and businessmen who oppose him- lacks the intensity of previous campaigns and in a spirit of conciliation, he has said that he does not intend to prosecute President Enrique Peña Nieto for alleged acts of corruption.
López Obrador is the target of attacks by the rest of the candidates, Ricardo Anaya of the Por México al Frente coalition, José Antonio Meade of the Todos Por México coalition led by the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party and the independent candidate, Margarita Zavala.
Despite a near universal desire for an end to Venezuela’s manmade disaster, sending in U.S forces to take out the Maduro regime would be counter-productive. It should be categorically rejected by interim president Juan Guaidó, not to mention the Trump administration.
The firing of undocumented workers at Trump's golf clubs just shows how the practice of employing immigrants without legal work papers is much more common than we might imagine. Such is life in the United States.
The Trump administration should be wary of fueling fake news predictions about an imminent American invasion which unrealistically raises expectations about Maduro's removal.
At some point we will have to accept the fact that the border between Mexico and the United States is nothing more than an invention.
The United States has had a major role in the evolving drama of the fight for democracy in Venezuela and Nicaragua. And so far, it’s been surprisingly coordinated, a veritable model of multilateralism.
Has the Maduro regime reached breaking point? It remains hard to say, but tomorrow is another - more hopeful - day for the restoration of democracy in the South American nation.
It’s impossible to get into Trump’s head but what comes out of his mouth are racist remarks. But, saddest of all are the millions who tolerate his views, cheer him on and emulate his behavior.
The time is well past due for the U.S. government to conduct a thorough review of leaders and their senior colleagues before they leave office to determine if they merit visas.
Anaya, in second place in the polls, has developed a double strategy: to associate Meade with the discredited Peña Nieto government and to attack López Obrador for proposing a return to the past and an economic model that has led to disaster in countries like Venezuela. It is the candidate of continuous change that offers to end corruption, violence and insecurity while preserving current political, economic and institutional reforms.
Circumstances and his opponents have placed Meade at the extremes of continuity. His solid preparation and clean and simple image, would make Meade the ideal candidate of any political party. He sympathizes with the Mexican financial and business elite with which, as a public official, he has been close. He has in his favor the government's commitment to help him in different ways reach second place but his links with a president and a party, the PRI, both very unpopular, has been a very heavy burden for Meade.
With an electorate fed up with privileges and injustices, the flattery of the business class and bankers may have lost Meade more sympathy than it gained him. It is vital that in the first days of the campaign Meade show that he has what it takes to knock out Anaya from second place and be competitive against López Obrador.
Margarita Zavala is the only independent candidate in the race. Her candidacy is the product of a deep split in the National Action Party from which Zavala resigned when it became evident that Anaya would be chosen as candidate. As Zavala starts in fourth place, it would be normal for her to attack Meade but the contempt she feels for Anaya and the fact they share a common base of supporters, may lead her to focus her attacks on Anaya, even at the cost of reinforcing the impression that her participation in the elections is a move by the government itself to help Meade. What a mess!
While Anaya, Meade and Zavala fight for second place, López Obrador is prepared to face the attacks that the government, opponents and "mafia in power" will unleash against him and to try to use his support and charisma to elect candidates of his coalition which would allow him to control the Congress.
But AMLO's worst enemy is himself. Despite his effort to control himself, his opponents have been able to make him fight battles that he could have avoided. He insists on discussing issues that are irrelevant but that highlight his negatives of arrogance, rigidity and messianism and his propensity to see that everything is wrong in the country.
Businesspeople are concerned by his insistence on halting the construction of the new international airport in Mexico, disavowing the contracts signed for the works, reviewing the energy reform and suspending new tenders in areas for oil production. Lopez Obrador also makes unnecessary proposals, such as submitting his mandate to a referendum every two years, which only feeds the fear of large sectors of the middle and upper class that Mexico will take Venezuela's course.
The 100 day campaign script seems defined. Anaya, Meade and Zavala struggle to get closer to López Obrador, projecting themselves as the best option to continue the economic model without the risks and leaps they attribute to AMLO. But, ultimately, Anaya, Meade and Zavala hope that the attacks on López Obrador and his own strategic mistakes will lead to his self-destruction.
Relacionados: