Clinton’s advantage among Hispanics increases in Florida and Colorado and her confidence margin is boosted in key states

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton has consolidated her lead over her Republican rival Donald Trump among registered Hispanic voters in four potentially decisive states, according to a new bipartisan poll conducted exclusively for Univision News. Clinton leads the New York businessman in the intention of the Latino vote by more than three to one in Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada; and by more than two to one in Florida. In addition, the survey conducted by the Democratic firm Bendixen & Amandi and the Republican firm The Tarrance Group reveals that the former Secretary of State increased her advantage by five percentage points over Trump in the crucial state of Florida, and four percentage points in Colorado.

Other important survey results suggest that Clinton has gained ground among Hispanic voters in this final phase of the presidential race thanks to her good performance in the first presidential debate, held at Hofstra University in New York on September 26, and her first radio and TV ad campaign in Spanish. For example, the percentage of Latino voters who consider Clinton to be honest and reliable increased significantly from the previous survey in Florida, Colorado, and Nevada. At the time of that survey, conducted about a month ago, the debate had not yet taken place, nor had commercial ads aired showing the Democratic candidate slamming her Republican rival.

Moreover, those same states saw a considerable increase in the percentage of Latino voters who believe that Clinton has a better personality and temperament to be president of the United States.

By contrast, with just a little over a month to the election, Donald Trump is running out of time to improve his image and possibilities among Hispanic voters in the four studied swing states. The percentage of those who hold an unfavorable opinion of the real estate mogul remains very high in the four states, and even increased slightly in two of them: Arizona and Florida.

Clinton has made good use of her opponent’s unpopularity among Hispanics and now even appears tied with Trump on the voting intentions of Florida’s Cuban Americans, who have traditionally voted for Republicans in presidential contests. Both candidates have the support of 41% of those voters, according to the new survey. This is particularly significant considering that Trump traveled to Miami last month specifically to court the Cuban-American vote and pledged to reverse President Barack Obama’s deal that reopened relations and limited trade with Cuba unless the Cuban regime restores political freedoms on the island and frees political prisoners. Clinton’s progress among Cuban-American voters may reflect a recent Newsweek report that showed that a company controlled by Trump violated the Cuban embargo in 1998.

Trump will face an uphill struggle if he tries to improve his image among Hispanic voters in the few weeks remaining in the race. When asked whether the campaign of the Republican candidate is racist, anti-Semitic, and homophobic, 57% of respondents said yes in Florida, 68% in Arizona, 70% in Colorado, and 69% in Nevada.

In addition, the number of Hispanic voters in the four swing states who think Trump plans to deport all 11 million undocumented immigrants increased significantly in relation to the previous survey. By contrast, in those same states more Hispanic voters think that Clinton would achieve comprehensive immigration reform if elected than those who disagree.

Respondents overwhelmingly said that both Republicans and the media have exaggerated Hillary Clinton’s health problems. Very few actually think that these problems are serious.

However, a clear majority also felt that the media have shown bias in covering the presidential race - and that this biased coverage has mainly favored the Democratic candidate. Throughout the current campaign Donald Trump and his advisers have complained vehemently that Hillary Clinton receives less media scrutiny.

Trump and Clinton chose their respective running mates more than two months ago. But both Republican Mike Pence and Democrat Tim Kaine remain unknown to large a number Hispanic voters. Four out of 10 in Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada still do not know who Pence is, or have not formed an opinion about him; and the same goes for five out of 10 in Florida. Kaine has very similar percentages. The survey was conducted before the two vice presidential candidates held their first and only televised debate at Longwood University in Farmville, Virginia, on Tuesday, October 4.

As for the issues that will mostly motivate Hispanics to vote in the elections on November 8, the new bipartisan survey does not show large variations from the previous one. Jobs and the economy continue to be the great motivator, followed in second place by immigration. Terrorism also appears as an important stimulus among respondents in Florida and Colorado.

The bipartisan exclusive Univision News survey consulted 1,600 Hispanic registered voters, 400 of them in each of the four swing states, between September 26 and October 4 this year. And it has a +/- 4.9% margin of error.