In graphics: How Trump conquered the industrial and Democratic heart of the US
Donald Trump visited 29 cities in historically Democratic Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania during his campaign. Hillary Clinton visited only 10 of the cities, and never visited Wisconsin. Compared to 2012, the Republican president-elect gained votes in most of the counties in the three states –202 out of the 222 counties, or 91 percent. That was especially important in Wisconsin, where votes from the large number of rural communities eclipsed the Democratic votes in densely populated Milwaukee, Waukesha and Dane Counties.
Counties where the GOP gained
and lost votes compared to 2012
MICHIGAN
Gained in
Lost in
76 counties
7 counties
Total counties: 83
Genesee
(Flint)
Kent
(Grand Rapids)
30,000
1,000
Macomb
Gained votes
Wayne (Detroit)
WISCONSIN
Gained in
Lost in
63
9
Total counties: 72
Brown
(Green Bay)
Waukesha
30,000
1,000
Gained votes
Milwaukee
Dane (Madison)
In Wisconsin, the Republican candidate received 71,838 fewer votes in the nine biggest counties than 2012, but gained 73,339 votes in the 63 other counties, almost all in rural areas.
PENNSYLVANIA
Gained in
Lost in
63
4
Total counties: 67
Luzerne
Lackawanna
Erie
Allegheny
(Pittsburgh)
Philadelphia
30,000
1,000
Gained votes
Counties where the Republican Party
gained and lost votes compared to 2012
MICHIGAN
Gained in
Lost in
76 counties
7 counties
Total counties: 83
Kent
(Grand
Rapids)
Genesee
(Flint)
30,000
Macomb
1,000
Wayne
(Detroit)
Gained votes
WISCONSIN
Gained in
Lost in
63
9
Total counties: 72
Brown
(Green Bay)
Waukesha
30,000
1,000
Milwaukee
Gained votes
Dane (Madison)
In Wisconsin, the Republican candidate received 71,838 fewer votes in the nine biggest counties than 2012, but gained 73,339 votes in the 63 other counties, almost all in rural areas.
PENNSYLVANIA
Gained in
Lost in
63
4
Total counties: 67
Luzerne
Lackawanna
Erie
Philadelphia
30,000
1,000
Allegheny
(Pittsburgh)
Gained votes
Counties where the GOP gained and lost votes compared to 2012
MICHIGAN
Gained votes in
Lost votes in
76 counties
7 counties
Genesee
(Flint)
Total counties: 83
Kent
(Grand
Rapids)
Macomb
30,000
Wayne
(Detroit)
1,000
Gained votes
WISCONSIN
Gained in
Lost in
63
9
Brown
(Green Bay)
Total counties: 72
Waukesha
30,000
1,000
Milwaukee
Gained votes
Dane (Madison)
In Wisconsin, the Republican candidate received 71,838 fewer votes in the nine biggest counties than 2012, but gained 73,339 votes in the 63 other counties, almost all in rural areas.
PENNSYLVANIA
Luzerne
Lackawanna
Gained in
Lost in
Erie
63
4
Total counties: 67
30,000
Philadelphia
1,000
Gained votes
Allegheny
(Pittsburgh)
Counties where the Republican Party gained and lost votes compared to 2012
Gained votes in
Lost votes in
Gained in
Lost in
Gained
Lost in
76 counties
7 counties
63
9
63
4
Total counties: 83
Total counties: 72
Total counties: 67
MICHIGAN
WISCONSIN
PENNSYLVANIA
Luzerne
Lackawanna
Erie
Brown
(Green Bay)
Genesee
(Flint)
Waukesha
Philadelphia
Kent
(Grand
Rapids)
Milwaukee
Macomb
Allegheny
(Pittsburgh)
Wayne
(Detroit)
Dane (Madison)
In Wisconsin, the Republican candidate received 71,838 fewer votes in the nine biggest counties than 2012, but gained 73,339 votes in the 63 other counties, almost all in rural areas.
30,000
1,000
Gained votes
Counties where the Republican Party gained and lost votes compared to 2012
Gained votes in
Lost votes in
Gained in
Lost in
Gained in
Lost in
76 counties
7 counties
63
9
63
4
Total Counties: 83
Total Counties: 72
Total Counties: 67
MICHIGAN
PENNSYLVANIA
WISCONSIN
30,000
1,000
Gained votes
Luzerne
Lackawanna
Erie
Brown
(Green Bay)
Genesee
(Flint)
Waukesha
Kent
(Grand
Rapids)
Philadelphia
Milwaukee
Macomb
Allegheny
(Pittsburgh)
Wayne
(Detroit)
Dane (Madison)
In Wisconsin, the Republican candidate received 71,838 fewer votes in the nine biggest counties than 2012, but gained 73,339 votes in the 63 other counties, almost all in rural areas.
In Michigan, Trump increased his votes in large urban counties like Wayne (Detroit), Macomb and Genesee (Flint). He did the same in Pennsylvania in Philadelphia and Luzerne, but not in Allegheny (Pittsburgh).
Trump won all three states with just 107,000 votes
With the drop in votes for the Democratic candidate in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Trump needed a mere 107,330 votes to claim victory in all three states, with a total of 46 electoral votes. The three traditionally Democratic states were crucial to a Clinton win.
GOP lead in MI, WI and PA:
107,330 votes
11,837
27,257
68,236
Million votes
3
2
3.5
1
0.5
1.5
1992
2016
1992
2016
1992
2016
MICHIGAN
WISCONSIN
PENNSYLVANIA
(16 electoral
(10 electoral
(20 electoral
votes)
votes)
votes)
Source: AP.
GOP lead in MI, WI and PA:
107,330 votes
11,837
27,257
68,236
Million votes
3
2
3.5
1
0.5
1.5
1992
2016
1992
2016
1992
2016
MICHIGAN
WISCONSIN
PENNSYLVANIA
(16 electoral
(10 electoral
(20 electoral
votes)
votes)
votes)
Source: AP.
107,330 votes
Republican Party lead in MI, WI and PA:
Million
votes
Million
votes
Million
votes
11,837
27,257
68,236
2
3
3.5
2.5
3
1.5
2
2.5
1
1.5
2
1
0.5
1.5
1992
00
08
2016
1992
00
08
2016
1992
00
08
2016
WISCONSIN
PENNSYLVANIA
MICHIGAN
(10 electoral votes)
(20 electoral votes)
(16 electoral votes)
Source: AP.
107,330 votos
Republican Party lead in MI, WI and PA:
Million
votes
Million
votes
Million
votes
11,837
27,257
68,236
2
3
3.5
2.5
3
1.5
2
2.5
1
1.5
2
1
0.5
1.5
1992
00
08
2016
1992
00
08
2016
1992
00
08
2016
WISCONSIN
PENNSYLVANIA
MICHIGAN
(10 electoral votes)
(20 electoral votes)
(16 electoral votes)
Source: AP.
The collapse of the Democratic Party
Although the gap in vote totals for Trump and Clinton in the three states was relatively small, a comparison with the 2012 presidential elections shows the number of votes for the Democratic candidate last week fell by 681,540 while the number of votes for the Republican candidate rose by nearly 400,000.
Vote differences compared to 2012
Democratic Party
Republican Party
MICHIGAN
163,954
-297,196
(-11.6%)
WISCONSIN
1,501
-238,775
(-14.7%)
PENNSYLVANIA
232,507
-145,569
(-4.9%)
Source: AP.
Vote differences compared to 2012
Democratic Party
Republican Party
MICHIGAN
163,954
-297,196
(-11.6%)
WISCONSIN
1,501
-238,775
(-14.7%)
PENNSYLVANIA
232,507
-145,569
(-4.9%)
Source: AP.
Vote differences compared to 2012
Democratic Party
Republican Party
PENNSYLVANIA
MICHIGAN
WISCONSIN
232,507
163,954
1,501
-145,569
(-4.9%)
-238,775
(-14.7%)
-297,196
(-11.6%)
Source: AP.
Vote differences compared to 2012
Democratic Party
Republican Party
PENNSYLVANIA
MICHIGAN
WISCONSIN
232,507
163,954
1,501
-145,569
(-4.9%)
-238,775
(-14.7%)
-297,196
(-11.6%)
Source: AP.
Reasons for the GOP victory
The reasons can be put into two categories – those that helped Trump and those that harmed Clinton. Exit polls showed that dissatisfaction with the direction of the country among the non-Hispanic white majority (more than 75%) and a desire for change were the keys to the Republican victory.
Some analysts say that part of the dissatisfaction was the result of the economic woes in the so-called Rust Belt. That's where the manufacturing industry – steel mills, automobile plants, etc. – lost hundreds of thousands of jobs since the 1990s.
Manufacturing
Leisure & hospitality
Thousands of jobs
900
600
1,000
0
0
0
1992
2016
1992
2016
1992
2016
MI
WI
PA
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Manufacturing
Leisure and hospitality
Thousands of jobs
900
600
1,000
0
0
0
1992
2016
1992
2016
1992
2016
MICHIGAN
WISCONSIN
PENNSYLVANIA
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Manufacturing
Leisure and hospitality
Thousands of jobs
Thousands of jobs
Thousands of jobs
-462.9
-175.2
900
600
1,000
-337.6
600
400
750
300
200
500
0
0
0
1992
00
08
2016
1992
00
08
2016
1992
00
08
2016
PENNSYLVANIA
MICHIGAN
WISCONSIN
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Manufacturing
Leisure and hospitality
Thousands of jobs
Thousands of jobs
Thousands of jobs
-462.9
-175.2
900
600
1,000
-337.6
600
400
750
300
200
500
0
0
0
1992
00
08
2016
1992
00
08
2016
1992
00
08
2016
PENNSYLVANIA
MICHIGAN
WISCONSIN
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Some of the jobs returned in the last few years, but mostly in the leisure and hospitality sectors that generally offer lower salaries. Charles Ballard, a Michigan State University professor, said Trump “played to that [economic] anxiety very skillfully throughout the industrial heartland of America, and won Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, as well as Michigan.”
During Trump's repeated visits to the three states, he promised to bring back jobs by canceling free trade treaties, which he blamed for pushing U.S. jobs to other countries. Michael Berkman, a professor at Penn State University, said that “definitely there are areas that Trump campaigned harder and had a compelling message.”
For Ballard and Berkman, the economy was not the only reason for the GOP victory. Trump also had an effective anti-immigration message, and won almost all the counties with white majorities. “In Michigan as elsewhere, Trump's appeal to racial resentment and xenophobia was very powerful among ethnocentric whites,” said Ballard.
What hurt Clinton
One of Clinton's biggest problems was the Democratic voters in Michigan and Wisconsin did not vote for her in the party primaries. Ballard noted that Sen. Bernie Sanders' victories in those contests “was clear evidence of dissatisfaction with Clinton among Democrats.”
MICHIGAN
Clinton
Sanders
48.3%
49.8%
WISCONSIN
Clinton
Sanders
43.1%
56.6%
PENNSYLVANIA
Clinton
Sanders
55.6%
43.6%
Source: US Election Atlas.
MICHIGAN
Clinton
Sanders
48.3%
49.8%
WISCONSIN
Clinton
Sanders
43.1%
56.6%
PENNSYLVANIA
Clinton
Sanders
55.6%
43.6%
Source: US Election Atlas.
MICHIGAN
WISCONSIN
PENNSYLVANIA
Clinton
Sanders
48.3%
43.1%
55.6%
49.8%
56.6%
43.6%
Source: US Election Atlas.
MICHIGAN
WISCONSIN
PENNSYLVANIA
Clinton
Sanders
48.3%
Clinton
Sanders
43.1%
Clinton
Sanders
55.6%
49.8%
56.6%
43.6%
Source: US Election Atlas.
Polls before the election regularly showed Clinton leading Trump, perhaps one of the reasons why the Democratic candidate did not travel much to the three states. Benjamin Marquez, a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said Clinton did poorly reaching the working class in Wisconsin – a state she did not visit during the campaign.
Cities visited by the candidates during the general election campaign
MICHIGAN
Clinton
Trump
2
7
WISCONSIN
Clinton
Trump
0
5
PENNSYLVANIA
Clinton
Trump
8
17
Source: FairVote.
Cities visited by the candidates during the general election campaign
MICHIGAN
Clinton
Trump
2
7
WISCONSIN
Clinton
Trump
0
5
PENNSYLVANIA
Clinton
Trump
8
17
Source: FairVote.
Cities visited by the candidates during the general election campaign
MICHIGAN
WISCONSIN
PENNSYLVANIA
Clinton
Trump
2
0
8
7
5
17
Source: FairVote.
Cities visited by the candidates during the general election campaign
MICHIGAN
WISCONSIN
PENNSYLVANIA
Clinton
Trump
0
Clinton
Trump
2
Clinton
Trump
8
5
7
17
Source: FairVote.
University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee professor Kathleen Dolan said that among other possible factors for Trump's victory in Wisconsin was the voter ID-law approved this year that may have pushed down the turnout among minorities, who tend to vote Democratic.
Alejandro Fernández Sanabria and Javier Figueroa contributed to this report.