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In graphics: How Trump conquered the industrial and Democratic heart of the US

A look at the votes in historically Democratic Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania shows a collapse of the Democratic Party and a spike in the GOP vote in more than 90 percent of all counties.
18 Nov 2016 – 6:13 PM EST

Donald Trump visited 29 cities in historically Democratic Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania during his campaign. Hillary Clinton visited only 10 of the cities, and never visited Wisconsin. Compared to 2012, the Republican president-elect gained votes in most of the counties in the three states –202 out of the 222 counties, or 91 percent. That was especially important in Wisconsin, where votes from the large number of rural communities eclipsed the Democratic votes in densely populated Milwaukee, Waukesha and Dane Counties.


Counties where the GOP gained

and lost votes compared to 2012

MICHIGAN

Gained in

Lost in

76 counties

7 counties

Total counties: 83

Genesee

(Flint)

Kent

(Grand Rapids)

30,000

1,000

Macomb

Gained votes

Wayne (Detroit)

WISCONSIN

Gained in

Lost in

63

9

Total counties: 72

Brown

(Green Bay)

Waukesha

30,000

1,000

Gained votes

Milwaukee

Dane (Madison)

In Wisconsin, the Republican candidate received 71,838 fewer votes in the nine biggest counties than 2012, but gained 73,339 votes in the 63 other counties, almost all in rural areas.

PENNSYLVANIA

Gained in

Lost in

63

4

Total counties: 67

Luzerne

Lackawanna

Erie

Allegheny

(Pittsburgh)

Philadelphia

30,000

1,000

Gained votes

Counties where the Republican Party

gained and lost votes compared to 2012

MICHIGAN

Gained in

Lost in

76 counties

7 counties

Total counties: 83

Kent

(Grand

Rapids)

Genesee

(Flint)

30,000

Macomb

1,000

Wayne

(Detroit)

Gained votes

WISCONSIN

Gained in

Lost in

63

9

Total counties: 72

Brown

(Green Bay)

Waukesha

30,000

1,000

Milwaukee

Gained votes

Dane (Madison)

In Wisconsin, the Republican candidate received 71,838 fewer votes in the nine biggest counties than 2012, but gained 73,339 votes in the 63 other counties, almost all in rural areas.

PENNSYLVANIA

Gained in

Lost in

63

4

Total counties: 67

Luzerne

Lackawanna

Erie

Philadelphia

30,000

1,000

Allegheny

(Pittsburgh)

Gained votes

Counties where the GOP gained and lost votes compared to 2012

MICHIGAN

Gained votes in

Lost votes in

76 counties

7 counties

Genesee

(Flint)

Total counties: 83

Kent

(Grand

Rapids)

Macomb

30,000

Wayne

(Detroit)

1,000

Gained votes

WISCONSIN

Gained in

Lost in

63

9

Brown

(Green Bay)

Total counties: 72

Waukesha

30,000

1,000

Milwaukee

Gained votes

Dane (Madison)

In Wisconsin, the Republican candidate received 71,838 fewer votes in the nine biggest counties than 2012, but gained 73,339 votes in the 63 other counties, almost all in rural areas.

PENNSYLVANIA

Luzerne

Lackawanna

Gained in

Lost in

Erie

63

4

Total counties: 67

30,000

Philadelphia

1,000

Gained votes

Allegheny

(Pittsburgh)

Counties where the Republican Party gained and lost votes compared to 2012

Gained votes in

Lost votes in

Gained in

Lost in

Gained

Lost in

76 counties

7 counties

63

9

63

4

Total counties: 83

Total counties: 72

Total counties: 67

MICHIGAN

WISCONSIN

PENNSYLVANIA

Luzerne

Lackawanna

Erie

Brown

(Green Bay)

Genesee

(Flint)

Waukesha

Philadelphia

Kent

(Grand

Rapids)

Milwaukee

Macomb

Allegheny

(Pittsburgh)

Wayne

(Detroit)

Dane (Madison)

In Wisconsin, the Republican candidate received 71,838 fewer votes in the nine biggest counties than 2012, but gained 73,339 votes in the 63 other counties, almost all in rural areas.

30,000

1,000

Gained votes

Counties where the Republican Party gained and lost votes compared to 2012

Gained votes in

Lost votes in

Gained in

Lost in

Gained in

Lost in

76 counties

7 counties

63

9

63

4

Total Counties: 83

Total Counties: 72

Total Counties: 67

MICHIGAN

PENNSYLVANIA

WISCONSIN

30,000

1,000

Gained votes

Luzerne

Lackawanna

Erie

Brown

(Green Bay)

Genesee

(Flint)

Waukesha

Kent

(Grand

Rapids)

Philadelphia

Milwaukee

Macomb

Allegheny

(Pittsburgh)

Wayne

(Detroit)

Dane (Madison)

In Wisconsin, the Republican candidate received 71,838 fewer votes in the nine biggest counties than 2012, but gained 73,339 votes in the 63 other counties, almost all in rural areas.

In Michigan, Trump increased his votes in large urban counties like Wayne (Detroit), Macomb and Genesee (Flint). He did the same in Pennsylvania in Philadelphia and Luzerne, but not in Allegheny (Pittsburgh).


Trump won all three states with just 107,000 votes

With the drop in votes for the Democratic candidate in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Trump needed a mere 107,330 votes to claim victory in all three states, with a total of 46 electoral votes. The three traditionally Democratic states were crucial to a Clinton win.


GOP lead in MI, WI and PA:

107,330 votes

11,837

27,257

68,236

Million votes

3

2

3.5

1

0.5

1.5

1992

2016

1992

2016

1992

2016

MICHIGAN

WISCONSIN

PENNSYLVANIA

(16 electoral

(10 electoral

(20 electoral

votes)

votes)

votes)

Source: AP.

GOP lead in MI, WI and PA:

107,330 votes

11,837

27,257

68,236

Million votes

3

2

3.5

1

0.5

1.5

1992

2016

1992

2016

1992

2016

MICHIGAN

WISCONSIN

PENNSYLVANIA

(16 electoral

(10 electoral

(20 electoral

votes)

votes)

votes)

Source: AP.

107,330 votes

Republican Party lead in MI, WI and PA:

Million

votes

Million

votes

Million

votes

11,837

27,257

68,236

2

3

3.5

2.5

3

1.5

2

2.5

1

1.5

2

1

0.5

1.5

1992

00

08

2016

1992

00

08

2016

1992

00

08

2016

WISCONSIN

PENNSYLVANIA

MICHIGAN

(10 electoral votes)

(20 electoral votes)

(16 electoral votes)

Source: AP.

107,330 votos

Republican Party lead in MI, WI and PA:

Million

votes

Million

votes

Million

votes

11,837

27,257

68,236

2

3

3.5

2.5

3

1.5

2

2.5

1

1.5

2

1

0.5

1.5

1992

00

08

2016

1992

00

08

2016

1992

00

08

2016

WISCONSIN

PENNSYLVANIA

MICHIGAN

(10 electoral votes)

(20 electoral votes)

(16 electoral votes)

Source: AP.


The collapse of the Democratic Party

Although the gap in vote totals for Trump and Clinton in the three states was relatively small, a comparison with the 2012 presidential elections shows the number of votes for the Democratic candidate last week fell by 681,540 while the number of votes for the Republican candidate rose by nearly 400,000.


Vote differences compared to 2012

Democratic Party

Republican Party

MICHIGAN

163,954

-297,196

(-11.6%)

WISCONSIN

1,501

-238,775

(-14.7%)

PENNSYLVANIA

232,507

-145,569

(-4.9%)

Source: AP.

Vote differences compared to 2012

Democratic Party

Republican Party

MICHIGAN

163,954

-297,196

(-11.6%)

WISCONSIN

1,501

-238,775

(-14.7%)

PENNSYLVANIA

232,507

-145,569

(-4.9%)

Source: AP.

Vote differences compared to 2012

Democratic Party

Republican Party

PENNSYLVANIA

MICHIGAN

WISCONSIN

232,507

163,954

1,501

-145,569

(-4.9%)

-238,775

(-14.7%)

-297,196

(-11.6%)

Source: AP.

Vote differences compared to 2012

Democratic Party

Republican Party

PENNSYLVANIA

MICHIGAN

WISCONSIN

232,507

163,954

1,501

-145,569

(-4.9%)

-238,775

(-14.7%)

-297,196

(-11.6%)

Source: AP.


Reasons for the GOP victory

The reasons can be put into two categories – those that helped Trump and those that harmed Clinton. Exit polls showed that dissatisfaction with the direction of the country among the non-Hispanic white majority (more than 75%) and a desire for change were the keys to the Republican victory.


Some analysts say that part of the dissatisfaction was the result of the economic woes in the so-called Rust Belt. That's where the manufacturing industry – steel mills, automobile plants, etc. – lost hundreds of thousands of jobs since the 1990s.


Manufacturing

Leisure & hospitality

Thousands of jobs

900

600

1,000

0

0

0

1992

2016

1992

2016

1992

2016

MI

WI

PA

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Manufacturing

Leisure and hospitality

Thousands of jobs

900

600

1,000

0

0

0

1992

2016

1992

2016

1992

2016

MICHIGAN

WISCONSIN

PENNSYLVANIA

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Manufacturing

Leisure and hospitality

Thousands of jobs

Thousands of jobs

Thousands of jobs

-462.9

-175.2

900

600

1,000

-337.6

600

400

750

300

200

500

0

0

0

1992

00

08

2016

1992

00

08

2016

1992

00

08

2016

PENNSYLVANIA

MICHIGAN

WISCONSIN

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Manufacturing

Leisure and hospitality

Thousands of jobs

Thousands of jobs

Thousands of jobs

-462.9

-175.2

900

600

1,000

-337.6

600

400

750

300

200

500

0

0

0

1992

00

08

2016

1992

00

08

2016

1992

00

08

2016

PENNSYLVANIA

MICHIGAN

WISCONSIN

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.


Some of the jobs returned in the last few years, but mostly in the leisure and hospitality sectors that generally offer lower salaries. Charles Ballard, a Michigan State University professor, said Trump “played to that [economic] anxiety very skillfully throughout the industrial heartland of America, and won Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, as well as Michigan.”


During Trump's repeated visits to the three states, he promised to bring back jobs by canceling free trade treaties, which he blamed for pushing U.S. jobs to other countries. Michael Berkman, a professor at Penn State University, said that “definitely there are areas that Trump campaigned harder and had a compelling message.”


For Ballard and Berkman, the economy was not the only reason for the GOP victory. Trump also had an effective anti-immigration message, and won almost all the counties with white majorities. “In Michigan as elsewhere, Trump's appeal to racial resentment and xenophobia was very powerful among ethnocentric whites,” said Ballard.


What hurt Clinton

One of Clinton's biggest problems was the Democratic voters in Michigan and Wisconsin did not vote for her in the party primaries. Ballard noted that Sen. Bernie Sanders' victories in those contests “was clear evidence of dissatisfaction with Clinton among Democrats.”


MICHIGAN

Clinton

Sanders

48.3%

49.8%

WISCONSIN

Clinton

Sanders

43.1%

56.6%

PENNSYLVANIA

Clinton

Sanders

55.6%

43.6%

Source: US Election Atlas.

MICHIGAN

Clinton

Sanders

48.3%

49.8%

WISCONSIN

Clinton

Sanders

43.1%

56.6%

PENNSYLVANIA

Clinton

Sanders

55.6%

43.6%

Source: US Election Atlas.

MICHIGAN

WISCONSIN

PENNSYLVANIA

Clinton

Sanders

48.3%

43.1%

55.6%

49.8%

56.6%

43.6%

Source: US Election Atlas.

MICHIGAN

WISCONSIN

PENNSYLVANIA

Clinton

Sanders

48.3%

Clinton

Sanders

43.1%

Clinton

Sanders

55.6%

49.8%

56.6%

43.6%

Source: US Election Atlas.

Polls before the election regularly showed Clinton leading Trump, perhaps one of the reasons why the Democratic candidate did not travel much to the three states. Benjamin Marquez, a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said Clinton did poorly reaching the working class in Wisconsin – a state she did not visit during the campaign.


Cities visited by the candidates during the general election campaign

MICHIGAN

Clinton

Trump

2

7

WISCONSIN

Clinton

Trump

0

5

PENNSYLVANIA

Clinton

Trump

8

17

Source: FairVote.

Cities visited by the candidates during the general election campaign

MICHIGAN

Clinton

Trump

2

7

WISCONSIN

Clinton

Trump

0

5

PENNSYLVANIA

Clinton

Trump

8

17

Source: FairVote.

Cities visited by the candidates during the general election campaign

MICHIGAN

WISCONSIN

PENNSYLVANIA

Clinton

Trump

2

0

8

7

5

17

Source: FairVote.

Cities visited by the candidates during the general election campaign

MICHIGAN

WISCONSIN

PENNSYLVANIA

Clinton

Trump

0

Clinton

Trump

2

Clinton

Trump

8

5

7

17

Source: FairVote.

University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee professor Kathleen Dolan said that among other possible factors for Trump's victory in Wisconsin was the voter ID-law approved this year that may have pushed down the turnout among minorities, who tend to vote Democratic.


Alejandro Fernández Sanabria and Javier Figueroa contributed to this report.

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